By Juan Williams
NPR Senior Correspondent/FOX News Political Contributor
As John McCain considers his options for a running mate the obvious choice is Colin Powell. So far, however, it appears not obvious to McCain or Powell.
Columnist Robert Novak’s column earlier this week suggested that Powell fits in with neo-conservatives who are angry with the failings of the Bush administration and rushing to join the Obama campaign. Novak proposes that Sen. Chuck Hagel and Powell, two military veterans and Republicans, are likely to join forces with Obama. As for Powell, Novak writes, “Powell likely will enter Obama’s camp at a time of his own choosing.”
I’d be surprised if Powell endorses Obama. One person very close to Powell put it to me this way on Thursday: “He and John are good friends.” But let’s take it a few steps up the ladder of political possibilities. Why not a McCain-Powell ticket?
With Powell on the GOP ticket McCain’s standing with independent voters will go from a slight lead to a widening, awe-inspiring gap. With that one step he can erase the three to six point lead that Obama holds in most polls.
Powell is a more experienced version of Obama. He is also a proven American military hero. And to paraphrase Obama from his recent prediction that his opponents will make an issue of his race, did I mention that Powell is black.
Powell will magnify the risk factor associated with Obama and give the independent voters comfort in knowing they can make history without the anxiety of handing the keys to the White House over to a young unknown.
A recent USA Today poll had Obama up by 6 points but among Independent voters Obama held a 12 point lead. In a recent L.A. Times poll, Obama leads by 12 points but when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are factored in the Obama lead widens to 15 points. The difference there is independent voters leaving McCain. But those independents can be recaptured and in fact they are looking to McCain to make his case to them. Right now, according to the Times poll, 54 percent of independent voters said Obama is too inexperienced. When independent voters are asked who has the right experience to be the next President the independent voters favored McCain 47 percent to 27 percent for Obama. McCain needs to focus on those independent voters and he can do that by naming Powell as his running mate.
It is true that hard core Republicans have a history of being ambivalent about Powell. But what too often gets lost in that calculation is that Powell is a tremendous asset to the Republican Party and to McCain. Yes, he is pro-choice on abortion. Yes, he supports affirmative action. And yes, he is a man who has been quoted as saying he is at best “55 percent Republican.”
But Powell is a winner with the American public, rated among the most respected leaders in the nation. Before the 1996 Presidential race the one Republican that scared Bill Clinton was none other than Colin Powell. According to a recent biography, Soldier – The Life of Colin Powell,” by Karen DeYoung, President Clinton worried openly that Powell was capable of capturing black voters and independent voters. “He’ll beat me bad,” Clinton is quoted as saying. But the hard right of the party kept Powell from getting to the starting line. So, too, did Powell’s wife, who was worried about Powell’s personal safety.
Now, the Republican Party is in the re-tooling business. They have to recreate the brand. That is why John McCain was the best possible nominee for this presidential race. The maverick McCain is out-performing the 15 to 20 point spread that a generic Democratic candidate for the White House holds over a generic Republican for the White House. McCain is both a Republican and not a Republican; he is the maverick Republican.
With Powell by his side, McCain further moves away from the damaged brand of GOP politics and captures the energy surrounding the idea of pragmatic, bi-partisan political actors with a history of achievement and knowledge of world affairs.
With Powell on the ticket, McCain becomes the favorite.
