By John Avlon
Author, “Independent Nation”

Barack Obama is taking two days off the campaign trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii.  This gives the McCain campaign their last best shot to own a news cycle uninterrupted, and give independent and undecided voters one last chance to reassess their vote.

They can turn the tide — though time is running out -– not by going negative but by embracing two new lines of argument.

First, run against unified control.  The American people may be angry at President Bush, but the vast majority of independents and undecideds are nervous about the prospect of the Democrats having unified control over the White House and Congress.  They have reason to question whether a traditional Democrat approach to the economy will compound our current problems.

The American people like checks and balances.  That’s why they usually revert to divided government when the party that briefly enjoys unified control inevitably overreaches and becomes ideologically excessive (see Delay, Tom).  This is a particular risk for the likes of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, who perhaps do not appreciate how and why Congress has a lower approval rating than President Bush.

America is a center-right nation.  An Obama victory will be badly misinterpreted as an ideological victory by many liberal Democrats –- it is not. Running against unified control can win over undecideds to McCain’s side.  His record shows that he can be trusted to be an honest broker in the White House, working with Democrats to forge legislation that’s in the national interest, while keeping it from being hijacked by the influence of liberal special interests.

Second, name a shadow cabinet.  I gather this has been discussed by some in the McCain campaign –- and it’s late in the game, but not too late to implement.

Naming a shadow cabinet will help McCain define exactly how different his administration would be from President Bush.  Imagine naming Steve Forbes as Treasury Secretary, Rudy Giuliani as Attorney General, Joe Lieberman as Secretary of Defense, UN Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad as Secretary of State, voucher-supporting Washington schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee as Secretary of Education, and John Kaisch as Director of OMB.  That is a forward-looking, strong and centrist administration equipped to win the War on Terror and return our nation to the abandoned principles of fiscal responsibility.  It would attract independents and win over undecided voters.

Time is running out and denial’s not just a river in Egypt.  The underlying numbers and dynamics do not look good for McCain’s team but he is doing remarkably well flying against prevailing winds and defying political gravity.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: what Republicans need to understand is that John McCain is running ahead of the badly damaged Republican brand because of his independence, not in spite of it.  These two moves would double-down on his core strengths.

For the McCain team, now is the time to go big or go home.