FOX Forum

The Simplest Explanation for Why McCain Will Win This November

The paradox of the last week is this: The fortunes of Republican presidential candidate John McCain have been rising, while the fortunes of the Republican candidates, overall, have been falling. So what gives? Is McCain destined to win a lonely victory at the political pinnacle, while other Republicans sink further into minority status in lesser competitions? The answer, to be blunt about it, is probably “yes.”

And why will we see “two tier” election results in 2008?

One obvious reason is the fact that McCain is doing well; he has thrown Barack Obama onto the defensive, and he is now ahead in the latest polls. Meanwhile, the Republicans running for Congress have faced mostly bad news, including the recent indictment of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens. Just this morning we saw a long report from The New York Times, detailing the decline in Republican voter registration nationwide. Now admittedly, the Times is a liberal paper, but unless it is simply making up numbers, these data should be legitimately scary to Republicans: “In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined.”

And so it’s hard to argue with the Times’ overall conclusion:

While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors’ mansions

OK, so those are some numbers. And politics, like baseball, is, after all, a numbers game. You study the statistics of the past to gain clues about the statistics of the future.

Now to the second reason: Americans like divided government.
How do I know? Because it’s been the pattern in post-war American politics. For 37 of the last 62 years, 1946-2008, the White House has been controlled by one party while at least one chamber of Congress has been controlled by the other party. Today, for example, it’s a Republican President, George W. Bush, in the White House and a “loyal opposition,” led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Cal.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), dominating the 110th Congress.

And since WW 2, that’s been the most typical power distribution: For six of the eight years of his presidency, Republican President Dwight Eisenhower dealt with the Democrats who controlled the 84th, 85th, and 86th Congresses. Later it was Republicans Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush squaring off against Democrats who controlled one or both chambers, usually both.

Indeed, for 29 of the last 62 years, that’s been the most frequent pattern. Or, as statisticians would call it, “the modal score.” And for another eight years, in the 1940s and in the 1990s, it was Democratic presidents, Truman and Clinton, arrayed against Republican Congresses. Which is to say, 60 percent of the time over the last 62 years, control of the two popularly elected branches in Washington has been divided between the two parties.

For the record, Democrats controlled all the marbles in Washington—that is, both the White House and Congress—for a total of 18 years during this period (1949-1952, 1961-1968, 1977-1980, 1993-1994). And the Republicans owned both branches of government in 1953-1954, during much of 2001, and then, again, from 2003 to 2006.

So why this pattern? Why this divided control? Some suggest it’s a function of the voters’ collective mistrust of both parties: They simply don’t want to see one party control everything in Washington DC. But are the voters really that subtle in their thinking? Are they that willing to split their tickets, knowing that “gridlock” is the most likely outcome of such divided control? Well, the answer would seem be in the affirmative—it’s hard to argue with the historical record.

And in fact, polling surveys measuring trust in government tend to underscore the voters’ logic—when you don’t trust ‘em, divide their power. When trust in the federal government is high, voters seem happy to give one party the political equivalent of the football, so that the favored party can run with it for awhile. And yet when trust in the federal government declines, power is split. That’s been the case in the last decade. Trust and confidence in the federal government spiked after 9-11, reaching as high as 73 percent in 2002. But since then, various factors—most likely, frustration over Iraq, the response to Katrina—have caused trust in government to plummet, all the way down to 37 percent, according to the Pew Center. And so, in 2006, voters took control of Congress away from the incumbent party, the Republicans.

Democrats hoped that their triumphant 2006 election would be just an overture to an ever bigger win in 2008, but, as we have seen, that doesn’t seem to be shaping up. If the voters don’t want Republicans to have all the power in DC, maybe they don’t want Democrats to have all the power, either.

So the voters seem to be saying, “A partial pox on both your houses.” And yet since the Democrats seem solidly entrenched in Congress, for John McCain, that voter-wish becomes a blessing.

162 Responses to “The Simplest Explanation for Why McCain Will Win This November”

Comment by Terry McGraw

Very interesting, Mr. Pinkerton. I wonder if the American public hasn’t been duped. While we’ve been busy keeping the power balanced in Washington (and in many state capitols as well) we have lost sight of the fact that the Left has captured the MSM, Acadamia, as well as the Judiciary, to some extent. Now, even when the power looks balanced in Washington, the Left still has the upper hand. To achieve a real balance of power between the poles, the Republicans need to gain both the executive and the legislative branches. Otherwise, with the Left in control of the other institutions, the country will continue its downward spiral toward socialism.

I think it’s still not too late, but ‘too late’ is on the horizon. Four years of the Obamafication of our economy (especially with Reid and Pelosi running Congress) would move us much closer to that horizon. Eight years (GASP!) would bring us to the brink of no return.

 
Comment by Craig

“Indeed, for 29 of the last 62 years, that’s been the most frequent pattern. Or, as statisticians would call it, “the modal score.” And for another eight years, in the 1940s and in the 1990s, it was Democratic presidents, Truman and Clinton, arrayed against Republican Congresses. Which is to say, 60 percent of the time over the last 62 years, control of the two popularly elected branches in Washington has been divided between the two parties.”

And if you add in Roosevelt and Hoover years it’s 39 years out of 78 with mixed control, or exactly 50%. Same if you add the Bush years.

If you flip two coins, there is a 50% chance of getting different outcomes (one head and one tail), and 50% of getting the same outcome twice, but only 25% each of two heads or of two tails. That is, the “modal score” is a mixed outcome even though the coins have no knowledge of each other and cannot express a preference for a divided outcome. In the same way, if voters’ party preferences for congress and the white house are independent decisions, rather than exhibiting a preference for mixed control (and party control is split 50-50), one would expect divided government to occur half the time. There doesn’t seem to be much support for the idea that votes are cast with the goal of having divided government

 
Comment by Colony14.net

My gripe is that with divided government the republicans always get the blame and never get the credit.

When Congress is democrat and the President is republican, the President gets the blame for the economic disasters caused by the democrat Congress (e.g. Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Bush). When Congress is republican and the President is a democrat, the President gets the credit for the economic good done by the republican Congress (e.g. Clinton).

When Congress is controlled by the democrats and the President is a democrat, the results are typically disastrous (e.g. FDR, Truman, Johnson, Carter), but the media does its best to blame the republicans anyway.

When Congress is controlled by the republicans and the President is a republican, great things are accomplished! Oh, wait, that’s only happened once in the last 75 years, for a mere portion of the Reagan Presidency…

If McCain wins, he’ll be blamed for everything that goes wrong during the next four years, even though Congress will likely deserve the blame. Then Hillary wins in 2012 and again in 2016. I’d almost rather see Obama win, in which case America will end up hating Obama AND democrats in Congress after they screw everything up. The 2010 elections may be good for republicans… if we last that long.

 
Comment by Aaron Miller

I doubt that most voters are so crafty that they vote one party for president and the other party for Congress. Even if they wanted a split government, such a voting strategy would be unlikely to ensure that outcome.

A more likely cause is the difference in celebrity. Whereas presidential candidates are known as individual persons with apparent views and traits, Congressional candidates are usually defined almost solely by party affiliation. Thus, presidential candidates are much more likely to attract voters from the other side and from the middle.

Other important factors are the difference in terms of office (two and six years vs a president’s four) and the difference in voter turnout.

Of course, 60 percent is hardly a strong majority. It could be mere happenstance that the executive and legislative branches are usually divided by party.

 
Comment by Nathan Zook

Hmm… Let’s see. I have a penny (House), nickel (Senate), and dime (President). Heads–Republican. Tails–Democrat. HHH, TTT –not divided. HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH–divided. So random selection would imply a divided government 75% of the time. For our purposes, we have divided government 37/62 years or 59% of the time. So Mr. Pinkerton is being a fool.

Now I’m not in the mood to try to determine if 59% is statistically significantly less than 75% over the periods involved, to conclude that divided government is preferred by anything other than random chance is absurd.

To the extent that voters “want” divided government, it is because they are conflicted and rightly appreciate the different functions of the offices. Thus the historic “Solid South” was solidly Republican for President–preferring a strong defense, and solidly Democrat for the House–preferring pork for their district. But again, whatever effect in this vein exists, it is not enough to even bring the numbers up to par.

 
Comment by Kimberly

Mr. Pinkerton,

I agree with you: McCain will win, however, I didn’t expect your explanation. I must concur…it does make sense though. Here is the other major reason McCain will win: Obama is an unqualified, unworthy and untrustworthy person and certainly not fit for the presidency of the United States. And this from someone who normally doesn’t give a hoot about politics!

Sincerely,
Kimberly Auito

 
Comment by Felipe

biased much? It is very convenient that you chose to point out two Rassmusen polls which indicate McCain is ahead by 1 point, which is within the margin of error, while ignoring the latest Time poll which has obama at +5 and the latest AP poll which has obama at +6.
Also, keep in mind that while all polling is done by phone, specifically land line phones. Now, the two largest groups of Obama supporters are those under 30 and minorities (latest surveys have shown a 2:1 obama lead among hispanics) are much more likely to exclusively use a mobile phone, so all of those voters are not counted as heavily in all of these polls.
Thirdly, and most importantly, it is august! A month from the dem convention and even more from the rep convention. This is the off season in electoral politics.

 
Comment by Matt Puthoff

You’ve got me figured out. I don’t really trust Democrats or Republicans; to me, they are just two sides of the same corrupt coin. I try to vote for the individual candidates, but if there are none I like, I vote against whomever the incumbent is. Part of my reasoning is a desire to keep either party from accumulating too much power, and part of it is wanting to vote in the new guy to show my dissatisfaction with how things were ran.
I’m torn over who to vote for this year. I think Obama would do a better job of repairing the damage George Bush’s administration has done to America’s international reputation. Yet, with the Democrats currently entrenched in Congress, I’m leary of handing them the presidency as well. I also like John McCain’s resistance to engaging in partisan politics (though you wouldn’t know that if you were only looking at how he has been running his campaign lately). I hope things will become clearer this November.
In the meantime, keep up with these insightful articles.

 
Comment by Victor

Obama is getting more and more transparent.
He is a political animal. He will say anything which politically advantageous at the moment.
American people will see him through out. John McCain will win.

 
Comment by Rick Huffman

God, I hope you are wrong. Four more years of republican evil agenda and mindless lies and trashing our constitution. I am so sick of the republicans, George Bush and Dick Cheney have taken our country back 50 years. John McCain is more of the same lies, same wrong headed polices on the war and the environment. God, I pray we do not have to endure four more years I fear country cannot take it. Sincerely Rick Huffman

 
Comment by Brad

How many of those Democratic registrants in the swing states were really Republicans switching over to vote for Hillary to keep the primaries going?

 
Comment by dar knight

keep on dreaming. I am sure Jesus will save Mccain

 
Comment by AP

Where did Mr Pinkerton polled to post McCain will win. I have an answer…Mr Pinkerton polled himself and guess what he won by 1 vote out of 1 he polled. Just like McCain debates with McCain in many of the issues he has flipped so far.

 
Comment by chris

McCain will not win!

 
Comment by liz fenimore

Frankly, I don’t believe any of it.
The republicans did nothing for us over the last 7+ years; except to increase our national debt, offend other countries, lower the expectation of intellect at the top of our government and lie to the american people about the reasons for going to war with Iraq.
I look forward to a change in attitude in DC.
And, I don’t really care who it is as long as it’s not McCain or any other republican.
I do not believe McCain will win, I do not believe that the majority of americans WANT him to.
Political polls are for the media - it gives them something to masticate on, and all you media guys feel important.
But I wish the media would curtail the editorializing. It’s exhausting, sophomoric and useless.
Just give us the facts without all your dolus dogma spin.
I’m doubtful that this will post.

 
Comment by SWMissouri

Wow…Fox News already anointing “The Old One”. Kind of like they did with the retarded one we now have in office in 2000. What a surprise! Now they just need to get the Supreme Court in line and it’ll be a done deal. Wooo Hooo no wonder the world marvels at our Democracy.

 
Comment by Hunter Hendrix

Politics is indeed a numbers game. But how can you argue that 29 out 62 years are favorable odds for a so-called ‘pattern’ repeating? That is only 46%! I believe favorable odds would have to be much greater than 50% - say 65%. Those are favorable but by no means a slam-dunk. As for a ‘most often seen pattern’, I would submit that each election’s results are unique to the circumstances and fortunes of a given candidates or parties political mistakes during and up to the final moments of the campaigns. So don’t count the chickens just yet. There might be a lot of rotten eggs yet to be thrown. And even a thrown egg can have a spin on it ;-)

 
Comment by RealityCheck

Interesting indeed. Mathematically, 60% of the time qualifies for the term “likely,” but I wouldn’t bet my paycheck on those 6 in 10 odds.

The reality is the popularity of the Republican party is not the only thing on the decline . . . the number of people willing to call themselves a Republican has suffered sharp losses since the Bush/Cheney administration. Even many conservatives have now refused to be associated with a Republican party that has lost its marbles.

For the Republican Party, the most frightening of fact is not its present state, bur rather it’s future. Non-white minorities, GLBTs, and Neo-Christians (those who seek to follow Christ’s beatitudes) are flocking to the Democratic Party in droves. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, these are growing demographics. Meanwhile, the white middle- and upper-class male demographic is the fastest shrinking demographic in the country.

Every time Republicans “energize” their base with ideas of War, Anti-Homosexual, and Anti-Minority policies they push more and more of the future to the left. Unless their is a quick awakening in the Republican Party it will NEVER regain control of any part of congress or the Presidency.

 
Comment by Larry Carlson

Yes, a Democratic congress was arrayed against Richard Nixon, the Republican.

In the later election Nixon won again, despite dire predictions to the contrary by the liberal press. One of the reasons for Nixon’s winning was that he allowed big business profits to remain. The electors reasoned that they also wanted to be rich some day, and even if poor now, they some day could become millionairs too.

 
Comment by J. X. Rodríguez

According to news stories I’m reading just now, Obama is six points ahead in the polls. He’s on the defensive only in the sense that he’s got more to lose (the lead) than McCain. As long as he’s ahead he will run a conservative “high road” campaign; it would be silly to do anything else. In war or boxing we would say he is going to make McCain come to him.

It seems to me he has tricked McCain into making the same mistake the Clintonoids made, which was to make Obama the issue, first as “Black”, then as “inexperienced”. Mr. O knew how to handle these plays, having obviously given the necessary tactics a great deal of thought. Now McCain seems to be falling into exactly the same trap. And now he has taken on Paris Hilton as well!

 
Comment by Daniel Slocum

Look around you, Mr. McGraw: We’re already there [Socialism]; it’s just another word for liberal. I’d say the real tipping point was before my time (Roosevelt - social security, the “new deal”, gold confiscation, fiat currency etc.). It’s been down hill ever since. Face it the empire is crumbling. We’ve allowe our currency to be debased; we’ve given the GDP (generally dumb public) the power to “democratically” vote themselves every entitlemment under the sun; and, we’ve structured our economy, includiing our defense related industries to be heavily dependent on foriegn sources of supply…not to mention our addiction to foreign oil. And, if the Chinese and Arabs, major holders of American government debt ever decide to dump their dollar denominated holdings, we are as we say in Hawaii, “in deep Kim Chee”. We have allowed the development of entire unassimilated sub-cultures within our borders who bear no interest in or allegiance to the concept of a common American way of life. Moreover, due the permissiveness of the last two generations of parents, we now have a huge number of young people who have no respect for themselves or anyone else - the results of the “dumbing down” of American via our socialist domintated media and educational establishments.

As if this weren’t enough, we also have big brother government sticking it’s nose into every aspect of our lives, from our buying habits to our conduct in the bedroom. if that’s not socialism, what the hell would you call it? Big Brother has arrived, earlier than even George Orwell estimated. But, hey!…dream on, America, it must be really comfortable with your collective heads there in the sand! But, given the continuation of th present course of events, I’m guessing it won’t be that way much longer.

 
Comment by West Virginian

I agree, I am a Democrat, and have voted in every election since 1960, I always “split my ticket” between the President and the Congress.

 
Comment by Hiram Chung

I applaud Daniel’s comment that Liberalism (aka Socialism) flourished since the New Deal. I am from Hawaii and I agree with his comments about the political and social climate we Americans find ourselves in today. I suppose people who support the Democrats may not be so enthusiastic when they raise our taxes after the elections.

 
Comment by Frank Pytel

Daniel Slocum;

Here! Here!

I will vote for Ron Paul

God Bless

Frank Pytel

 
Comment by Steve M. from Florida

Mr. Pinkerton,

Good article. However, I believe that McCain will win this election because he is in favor of every means to solve the US energy problem, whereas the democrats only favor the far left views on the energy problem. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are committing political suicide by going against 75% or more of the US population who wishes to keep increased offshore drilling, coal, and nuclear power in the energy mix. Obama’s plan to tax the energy problem away would greatly cripple or destroy the US economy if he would get elected. So, on the outside chance that Obama gets elected, I predict a major loss for the democrats in the House and Senate in 2010. Which would be within the theme of your article.

A fan from Florida, Steve

 
Comment by Gerrie Ryan

Even though McCain is not an appealing candidate when people are more aware of Obama’s goals as stated in his own words the poll numbers will certainly change. Obama will tear down walls between countries, the rich and poor etc. He see himself as all powerful. He’ll be solely responsible for dealing with world leaders, determining the activities of the military etc. Obama will decide what profits corporations are entitled to and distribute excess as he will determine. It seems strange that the media doesn’t question any of these statements. Today the commentator on Hardball did bring up the idea of the distribution of profits of corporations but that is the only mention I’ve heard made on that topic. Obama’s goals for the US is more appropriate for third world countries and not the USA!

 
Comment by Rod

Here’s another reason McCain will win. What’s needed in the Oval Office is a mature, prinicipaled, experienced leader who has a deep, abiding love for his country and ALL the people in it. Barack Obama does not fit any of those criteria.

 
Comment by Muhammad Zafrullah

Yeah, McCain will win. He knows the value of humor and we do too, that is why we pay so much attention to comedians like the author of this article. The way McCain has “downed” Obama with a couple of funny ads, seems to indicate that he plans to tickle Osama Bin Laden to death and bring peace to the world.
I am looking forward to having a “wrinkly white haired” joker for a president.
Muhammad

 
Comment by Ron

The media especially FOX news is propping up McCain like ” Weekend at Bernie’s ”
So now they are promoting Vote for a Democratic Congress, but balance it with a Republican president.
I have to hand it to those Conservatives, their imagination is working overtime.

 
Comment by DAVE

I plead with anyone to give me concrete reasons as to why you would vote for Obama. He changes his views every day or so on numerous issues. He has had some amazingly questionable relationships. How do you know what he stands for? P.S. And don’t give me the “no more 3rd term of Bush or McCain has changed his views (a fraction, and with reason, of the times Obama has.) Don’t deflect my question. What has Obama done (not said) that makes you want to vote for him? Oh, and please don’t say “he is for change, man.” I am serious… I want to know. I am so perplexed as to why people want to vote for him. Good reasons, c’mon.

 
Comment by ArielleinFlorida

I too believe our awful Congress has something to do with John McCain’s probable victory in November. The “Rs” in Congress devolved into a culture of corruption, and were punished for it. However, the Democrats are as bad or worse, with the added negative that they will attempt to filch more of our earnings to buy their votes.

Yet, one needs to point out that voters are far less partisan than the media would have us believe. In truth, Barak Obama is an extremely weak candidate. He is very young, has almost no experience in positions of significant responsibility, and no accomplishments that remotely qualify him to be President of the United States. His “bubble-like” candidacy, fueled by anti-Clinton sentiment and an enraptured media, is premised on a house of cards and is imploding.

 
Comment by RSR

With Pelosi and Reid leading the Democrats and their charge toward socialism, add in an Obama presidentcy to that and the results will be disasterous.

 
Comment by Laurence Kahn

To characterize Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as “the loyal opposition” is an oxymoron. To even call them the disloyal opposition is being kind. They are both obstuctionist morons.

 
Comment by Don

Congress approval is at historic lows.

Pelosi is blocking the will of the people and won’t even allow a vote on energy.

The Pelosi/Reid congress has done nothing in 2 years save break all their promises. Their pledge of civility and bi-partisan work has also gone overboard. This do nothing congress is a joke.

How, exactly, are people so naive as to vote yet more Dems into Congress given the above??? Rome too went through a timeline where weaker and weaker and more corrupt leaders were thrust into office and we all know where that ended up.

 
Comment by Lyn

Daniel Slocum:

It’s not Socialism to have big Brother in our business, it IS Fascism, don’t you think?
And it seems to be more like the movie “Demolition Man” where anything determined to be “bad” for you is illegal.

 
Comment by osbuck

I think it is urgent that Libertarians and Republicans combine into a new party. Republicans can move a little to the right and Libertarians can move a little to the left. Both parties will be improved and the resulting newly formed party might have a chance against the constantly growing entitlement fed Democratic party. If this is not done soon, I see only dark days ahead.

 
Comment by Max Effort

In James Pinkerton’s article about why McCain will be elected president while the Republican party faces losses in the next election, he quotes the New York Times:

“In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined.”

Perhaps he has forgotten about Rush Limbaugh’s plan to have Republicans vote in Democrat primaries in order to skew the votes to stop Hillary. In states with open primaries, it is not necessary to declare a political party, but in others, it is. So it is possible that the increase in the number of registered Democrats is less than it appears. These crossovers may have voted Democrat in the primary but will vote their actual party preference (Republican) in the national election.

 
Comment by Jeff

Wow, you really think that Americans go out and vote a split ticket on purpose? Hmmm, maybe we should take a quick poll. The vast majority of the comments I see at fox news are hate-filled rants from drooling right-wing religious extremists. I’d love to hear how many of them will be voting for a democrat for congress in the interests of maintaining this “balance” that Mr. Pinkerton advocates. Anyone? Anyone?? Perhaps Mr. Pinkerton himself will be voting Democratic for congress? Somehow I doubt it. Sir, I think you need to look a bit deeper in your analysis.

 
Comment by MAC FLOW

All I continue to hear is that Obama is not qualified to be president. Well, if you consider Bush to be qualifed, only qualifications he has is his Daddy’s last name, then Obama has all the tools needed to do the job.

Gas, sky high…economy..in the tube…and do I need to mention the national DEBT??? Oh.. and did you know that the USA is footing the bill to rebuild Iraq while they continue to bank billions, yes billions in oil revenue but use to help thensleves??? and why would they when we are stupid enough to do it for them.

Last I checked, this country was in trouble, yet our “qualified” leader chooses to help the people in Iraq instead of his own. Johnny Mac has said that he will stay in Iraq as long as it takes…as long as it take to rebuild it on “our” dime, or bankrupt this country first.

The choice is ours, we already have one qaulified fool in office, to we really want his clone???

 
Comment by Jim

The percentage of Republicans vs. Democrats in Congress is mentioned AND th ePresidents approval rating is mentioned, so it would appear that both approval ratings and Congress are relevant. Take a look at the approval ratings of the Democratic-held Congress….

 
Comment by Wanda

Just heard John McCain say and I quote(I will put my country first) Maybe he should tell his wife.I understand she is working on a beer deal with Cuba??????????? Now I do not beleive Michelle Obama is working on anything out of our country. You know Mr McCain is definately not as perfect as he claims and as far as the Democrats taking a recess,How many recess’s has the Rep had 8yrs).

 
Comment by Terry McGraw

Yes, we are there now, Mr. Slocum. I happen to still believe there is hope, given the right (pun intended) course, that we can redirect our nation back toward being the capitalistic republic it was intended to be, and that if we don’t start turning the ship now, we will arrive at a point where the turn will not be possibe. We’re not China or the former USSR yet…

I also wanted to point out that the tide sweeping the United States toward the shore of communism is perhaps driven more by our children having socialism rammed down their throats in our school systems, colleges and universities, by socialism being imposed on us by liberal judges legislating from the bench, and by the MSM shouting their socialist doctrine over the airwaves, not just the news media, but Hollywood in general, and, of course in the print media.

All of this is to say that having the republicans in control of the white house AND even BOTH houses in congress does not necessarily equate to the balance of power being tipped in their favor. The root of the problem does not reside in Washington but in our schools, our courtrooms, and on our big screens. The article spoke of the voting population perhaps wanting to maintain a balance of power between the right and the left and how, throughout the history of the US they have voted that way. I’m suggesting that the public has been deceived into thinking that a “balance” in Washington between the DEMS and the GOP is a balance of power. It simply is not the case and the conservatives of this nation had better address that issue now and turn some resources toward solving this issue. Otherwise, gaining the whit house and a few seats in congress won’t do much good.

But again, you are correct. We are, in fact, a socialist society. I hope we have the male facilities to turn this nation around now. Unfortunately, even the republicans seem loathe to do what is necessary to accomplish that end. God help us.

 
Comment by Peter G

The reason this author sites the Rasmussan polls is because unlike the other polls, each election thats the poll that’s always right on the money. It’s really the only poll anyone should follow because apparently they always seem to get it right. Last election they were off by 0.5% on each candidate. Other polls (like the ones showing Obama ahead by 6,7,8 points) when researched you’ll notice they were quite a bit off when it came to voting time. Just saying.

 
Comment by Jonathan

Wow…some of you Republicans have just lost it. To the writer who calls the Democratic Congress obstructionist, your ignorance of the Legislature is astounding. The GOP has obstructed a record number of proposed legislation through filibuster. However, you of course are not aware of this, as the attack dogs of the Right do whatever is possible to only allow legislation that will make them and their military-industrialist friends richer, at the expense of the nation. McCain will no doubt lose this election by a large margin, especially as he engages in low-brow political pandering.

 
Comment by Thebrese

I am in fact one of those voters who consciously tries to split my vote between parties, and who avoids voting for the same party into different branches of government. I think McCain will win because he is overwhelmingly more qualified to be President. Obama can’t smell where McCain peed last. Secondly, with Democrats ruling the House, it makes the argument in favor of McCain that much more compelling. I have no admiration for a person whose sole accomplishment in any public office was simply that he ran for a higher office — on the taxpayer’s dole, of course. Obama has never so much as ran a hot dog stand. He’s never managed anything. He’s never been on a muncipal board, or been a small town mayor, or managed a city, or been a boss, or negotiated anything; he has no military experience, and in the tiny span of time (twenty four months) when he actually practiced law, he ended up getting mixed up with Tony Rezko (for which Obama received a nice house). By the way, Obama’s wife was a ghost payroller. Obama ditches his cronie pals (Wright) and changes his positions (campaign finance reform) as casually as if he were helping himself to a piece of pie. He’s as corrupt as it gets, unless you are talking about Ted Kennedy (the drunken murderer). I think it’d be disasterous to elect Obama and then have a rubber stamp Congress to bankrupt the country and tax the undying Christ of out people at the same time.

 
Comment by John Ace

The Democrats lost the presidency when the choices became Hillary and Obama. Democrats are mostly liberal and less sexest and racist than most Americans. Americans will not vote a woman nor a black man into office.

The Republican slogan should be “John McCain is a white anglo saxon protestent and Obama is not.”

 
Comment by JW

McCain will win because he is the most qualified of the two major parties running and I believe, and I hope I am right, that the American people will vote for their country instead of the party. We the people are tired of all the idiots in Congress so why would we want to consolidate the “power” trip for the Democrats. Plus, we all know that all politicians are liars and we have 2 Senators running for the highest office in the most powerful nation in the world. Obama is the bigger liar when compared to McCain; if McCain had a pastor of 20 years as anti-black and anti-American as Obama’s Wright is anti-white, his campaign would be over and we could all go home. But we have two ethnic standards in this country and Obama is counting on his favored standard to pull off one of the biggest frauds ever seen in this country and win the election based on DNC’s and his charade. Democrats seriously have to ask themselves, “Do I really want a President who will take the USA to a Socialist (look it up if you don’t know what it means) form of government with no balance of power from the worst Congress ever assembled?” It’s time for all people in this country to do their homework and then decide who they will cast their vote for in November. A non-vote will not send a message as so many people have stated; a vote will say you love your county and will not let the lies of politicians and the MSM influence your vote as an American citizen.

 
Comment by Mel

Nov 5th is coming and you don’t even have a clue on how bad it is really going to be for Republicans. I find it amusing that for 6 years we had a Republican President, Republican controlled Congress and a Republican controlled Senate and the Democrats were shut out entirely but you make the Democrates out to be the bad party…That is funny….Everything that is wrong now is because of Democrates? Bush vetos everything and the American people really know who is to blame. In Nov there is a BIG storm coming to wash the Republican garbage out to sea and I say “Good Riddance” Moron

 
Comment by Todd N

The only reason we seem to end up with split votes is because one politician or another has proven themselves to be the total scumbag voters hoped they would not be. Voters have the choice of voting for the scumbag or the person they hope not to become a scumbag. Party affiliation has nothing to do with it. Well, except for those fools who call themselves either ‘Republican’ or ‘Democrat’ only; if you are not independent to some extent, you have blinders on!
What would be more interesting would be to research how long it takes for Democrats vs. Republicans to be found to be a scumbag. Maybe then I’ll vote only for the party that is found out more quickly; they are less adept at hiding things from us and we can vote in their replacement sooner!

 
Comment by Joe S

There are a lot of assumptions made by polls these days. Being from the Northeast I can say that New Hampshire has become more Democrat and less Republican but it isn’t for the reason Mr. Pinkerton is asserting. New Hampshire borders Massachussetts and for the past two decades, mostly due to improved transportation routes, there has been an across the border emigration of former Mass. residents looking for more space. Along with their belongings they brought their liberal beliefs.

 
Comment by Ivan

If John McCain loved his country so much, why did he squeal when he was a captive? I never would have. I am a 20 year veteran and I would have died for my country first before squealing. You guys talk about his values. He has none! He dumped his first wife because she ws injured in an automobile accident. She took his tin man arms and legs back why couldn’t he do the same. He is no hero! He ws a marginal pilot who got shot down and would not put his country first. I feel as if I am more of a hero then he was as I did not get caught. He has duped you all, I am from Arizona and he has done nothing for us so why does people think that he will do anything for the country except reap the rewards such as Bush and Cheney. It will be a sad day if he gets elected. Watch your young children because trust me a war is near and so is the draft.

Ivan

 
Comment by Founder Guy

In the end, Americans will turn away from the secular humanistic socialism Obama offers.

 
Comment by Ron Ray Miller

I am so happy to see someone voice this. For years that is the way I have voted. Both parties have worked to sell this country to the highet bidder and I place the majority of our government reps into the criminal catagory. I don’t want to give them any more power and would work hard to reduce the power they do have. Mccain will counter Congress but I doubt Obama will do that. Other than that, I don’t care who is president because I don’t believe it makes any difference. When it comes to the government, I wish for the best but expect the worst.

 
Comment by Terry McGraw

Hey Mel, the only thing worse than the republican president’s approval rating is the democratic congress’ approval rating. Vetoing disasterous legislation is not obstructionism, it’s his job. I am not enamored with Bush. Quite frankly, I,m disappointed (to be kind) with his presidency. But he has not had much to work with. Even when the republicans controlled the congress, of those so called
“republican” members of congress stood far to the left of center on many issues. Thus, the republican “majority” really was no such thing.

And no, not everything that’s wrong now is because of the democrats. Many of the problems we have today are because the republicans have not carried out their stated intentions and have caved to the Left on occasions where it was not necessary to cave. That does not detract, however, from the fact that Obama’s stated policies and goals would exacerbate the fiscal and social ills already undermining this country. Communism is NOT a stimulis package. Weakening our military is NOT foreign policy. Ignoring natural resources beneath our own soil is NOT enery policy. Socialized medicine is NOT health care. Putting more air in your tires is NOT conservation. Obama is NOT the messiah (that particular title belongs to Jesus of Nazareth, or Yeshua) nor his he anything close to a qualified presidential candidate. McCain’s not a great choice either but he is by FAR the lessor of two evils. Hopefully he (McCain) will get four years to prove me wrong about him.

 
Comment by marg

G-d’s gonna put McCain in the oval office gang. So settle into it….get use to it……President John McCain…….that’s the way it’s going to unfold. Guaranteed. G-d does things well and this time HIS CHOICE is his son Johnnie. Yup, McCains got the spot for that job wrapped up for this round. And all will be well, between the two of them we’ll be in good hands. Between G-d and John McCain i mean.

 
Comment by Jim C.

A comment to Mr. Rick Huffman. If you think the Republicans have violated your constitutional rights, just wait till the democrats take control. They want to tell you what you can eat, what your kids can eat, how to raise your kids, what you can say, what you can drive, what light bulbs you have to use, how much water your toilet uses, what temperature to keep your house, what doctors you are allowed to go to, etc. etc. They want to regulate what companies pay to their employees. They want to take your hard earned money to spend on meaningless, useless entitlement programs that have not solved anything and will never accomplish anything other than creating a class of people dependent on the government for everything. They also think that you have no individual rights to your own property. If they someone else can make better use of the property or they can provide more taxes, then why not go ahead and confiscate your property. Obama and the democrats want a collectivist society and have no problem trashing the individual to accomplish this goal.

 
Comment by Jonathan Engstrom

It’s funny how most democrats just lay blame to all of the world’s problems on republicans! It’s also funny to listen to them rant when they discuss politics, most democrats will never admit that their party has made mistakes, or let alone themselves.
As for what Daniel Slocum said, you are right on. It’s scary to listen to the young generation talk about the democrat party, and they don’t realize that they are holding the same discussions that were held in the U.S.S.R. for the majority of the last century. And the democrats tell us we need to wake up? Interesting…

 
Comment by Jim Pinkerton

Thanks for all these comments. I will have more to say on this topic next week.

 
Comment by Daniel Slocum

Lyn:

Facism, Socialism (Q: what was the formal name of the Nazi party? A: The National Socialist German Workers Party.)…call it what you will. We will all be just as monitored, just as controlled, just as taxed and just as beaten down, whatever the name. Until people realize two things, we are doomed, as the Mogambo Guru (of the Daily Reckoning website/blog) is fond of saying: 1.) The truth of science fiction writer, Robert Heinlein’s acronym, TANSTAAFL (There Ain’t No Such Thing As A Free Lunch); and, 2.) to paraphrase Santayana, “Those who fail to understand their history are condemned to repeat it. Wake up and smell the B.S., people. There isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between any of the ‘Republicrats’. The next time somebody from the government knocks on your door and says he/she is there to help you, grab your wallet in both hands and run straight out the back door!

 
Comment by Sharron

Jeff? “hate-filled rants”?? “drooling right-wing religious extremists”??

Did anyone ever notice if a democrat is asked a yes or no question, the first reply is “blame Bush” or “Blame the rep’s in general” or something like your talking points??

 
Comment by A frank

I started voting for Republicans when I turned 18 in 1996 because I thought they were the party of small government and strong national defense. They’ve become the party of run-away deficits and pork barrel spending. I can’t vote for Democrats because I’m not a socialist. I don’t want the government to make the health care system and the economy worse through socialized medicine, higher taxes, and the outright confiscation of profits. So, you could say I am disenfranchised.

We need leadership that will protect our nation’s borders, end corporate welfare and subsidies that benefit no one besides campaign contributors, and allow the free market to solve our energy problems with nuclear power, domestic oil, coal, and natural gas, wind and solar power, or whatever turns out to be a real solution that doesn’t trample all over the consumer in the name of saving the environment. We need leadership that understands that keeping taxes low will enable the prosperity that fuels adequate tax revenue. We need leadership that understands that a balanced budget will go a long way to strengthen our economy and the plummeting dollar, and then have the guts to balance it. We need leadership that will end the welfare state and return to constitutional principals of a federal system. We need leadership that understands that in order for the world to respect us, we must respect ourselves by not surrendering to Islamo-Fascists here and abroad as well as the invasion taking place on our southern border. And very importantly, we need leadership who can articulate these ideas and solutions to the American people and the rest of the world.

I don’t care which, if any party this leadership comes from, but we are long overdue for it. We need to throw every one of the bums out. We can’t solve the problem by voting for one party or the other, because neither of them seem willing to do what is right.

 
Comment by Nancy

The oil crisis should be an ‘eye’ opener for all of you who think Obama is so wonderful. He has direct (and probably directed) ties to Nancy Pelosi, who is holding entire USA hostage. What gives one person the right to make decisions for an ENTIRE country? This Democratic party is due for a big surprise. Not to say they won’t win in the coming election, bu