The Simplest Explanation for Why McCain Will Win This November
The paradox of the last week is this: The fortunes of Republican presidential candidate John McCain have been rising, while the fortunes of the Republican candidates, overall, have been falling. So what gives? Is McCain destined to win a lonely victory at the political pinnacle, while other Republicans sink further into minority status in lesser competitions? The answer, to be blunt about it, is probably “yes.”
And why will we see “two tier” election results in 2008?
One obvious reason is the fact that McCain is doing well; he has thrown Barack Obama onto the defensive, and he is now ahead in the latest polls. Meanwhile, the Republicans running for Congress have faced mostly bad news, including the recent indictment of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens. Just this morning we saw a long report from The New York Times, detailing the decline in Republican voter registration nationwide. Now admittedly, the Times is a liberal paper, but unless it is simply making up numbers, these data should be legitimately scary to Republicans: “In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined.”
And so it’s hard to argue with the Times’ overall conclusion:
While the implications of the changing landscape for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the registration numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics over several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors’ mansions
OK, so those are some numbers. And politics, like baseball, is, after all, a numbers game. You study the statistics of the past to gain clues about the statistics of the future.
Now to the second reason: Americans like divided government.
How do I know? Because it’s been the pattern in post-war American politics. For 37 of the last 62 years, 1946-2008, the White House has been controlled by one party while at least one chamber of Congress has been controlled by the other party. Today, for example, it’s a Republican President, George W. Bush, in the White House and a “loyal opposition,” led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Cal.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), dominating the 110th Congress.
And since WW 2, that’s been the most typical power distribution: For six of the eight years of his presidency, Republican President Dwight Eisenhower dealt with the Democrats who controlled the 84th, 85th, and 86th Congresses. Later it was Republicans Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush squaring off against Democrats who controlled one or both chambers, usually both.
Indeed, for 29 of the last 62 years, that’s been the most frequent pattern. Or, as statisticians would call it, “the modal score.” And for another eight years, in the 1940s and in the 1990s, it was Democratic presidents, Truman and Clinton, arrayed against Republican Congresses. Which is to say, 60 percent of the time over the last 62 years, control of the two popularly elected branches in Washington has been divided between the two parties.
For the record, Democrats controlled all the marbles in Washington—that is, both the White House and Congress—for a total of 18 years during this period (1949-1952, 1961-1968, 1977-1980, 1993-1994). And the Republicans owned both branches of government in 1953-1954, during much of 2001, and then, again, from 2003 to 2006.
So why this pattern? Why this divided control? Some suggest it’s a function of the voters’ collective mistrust of both parties: They simply don’t want to see one party control everything in Washington DC. But are the voters really that subtle in their thinking? Are they that willing to split their tickets, knowing that “gridlock” is the most likely outcome of such divided control? Well, the answer would seem be in the affirmative—it’s hard to argue with the historical record.
And in fact, polling surveys measuring trust in government tend to underscore the voters’ logic—when you don’t trust ‘em, divide their power. When trust in the federal government is high, voters seem happy to give one party the political equivalent of the football, so that the favored party can run with it for awhile. And yet when trust in the federal government declines, power is split. That’s been the case in the last decade. Trust and confidence in the federal government spiked after 9-11, reaching as high as 73 percent in 2002. But since then, various factors—most likely, frustration over Iraq, the response to Katrina—have caused trust in government to plummet, all the way down to 37 percent, according to the Pew Center. And so, in 2006, voters took control of Congress away from the incumbent party, the Republicans.
Democrats hoped that their triumphant 2006 election would be just an overture to an ever bigger win in 2008, but, as we have seen, that doesn’t seem to be shaping up. If the voters don’t want Republicans to have all the power in DC, maybe they don’t want Democrats to have all the power, either.
So the voters seem to be saying, “A partial pox on both your houses.” And yet since the Democrats seem solidly entrenched in Congress, for John McCain, that voter-wish becomes a blessing.
Hey Jim!
Keep up the good work. Your insights are always fresh, logical, and make sense. I always enjoy your input on Fox. Do you have a blog I can follow?
Wow! McCain supporters need to result in such harsh name calling. Is it that hard to find a true solid reason to back him? You sound like a bunch of little immature kids. McCain doesn’t know anything if you read his military history. It is full of blunders. That ONE flight was I believe is second success without a crash and this one ended up getting shot down. Ok. So now he sits in a prison for how long?
He is being decorated for what? Being a top admirals son. LOL!
There are plenty of POWs that deserved more recognition then McCain and they have been forgotten or left behind which is amazing because he led that charge in a very rude manner.
Talk about Celebrity? This is the same guy that cooperated with the people that captured him.
This is the same person who go better treatment because of this fathers military status.
If it had not been for that he would have been left over there like so many others MIA, still prisoners and never to be returned.
McCain quit in Afghanistan and not holding the people responsible for the deaths of 9/11.
Obama wants to provide true resolve that isn’t driven by boot camp learned pride, but by the facts and were we need to be focused.
McCain talks about he won’t quit. He quit when we went into Iraq with Afghan being left undone.
McCain will lie about anything to get into office. Desperate.
How many times does America have to be lied to by the same people. Yes the same people because he is learning from the people that lied to you before.
If any of you think Offshore Drilling is the answer you need to ask yourself one little question.
If the idea is to remove ourselves from that dependency then why invest in it?
We should be off it by now, but our lack of innovation has kept us in the mix. We keep setting the bar low. Kennedy said put a man on the Moon not because it is easy. Offshore drilling is easy. Cars making 40 mpg now is easy. Why not 50 mpg? Why not no gas at all? If we continue with the offshore drilling we will waste resources on trying to make gas vehicles more efficient for the long run.
Foreign vehicles will move in and knock us out because again we shift our focus off the real solution, just like Iraq.
Do you think Cindy McCain really hurt her hand from a handshake? Were is the video?
The media seems to capture everything else how did they miss this? FOX?
Because there is a good possibility McCain snatched her.
I was watching that church session. The first name Obama gave when asked what three people would he go to for advice was his wife.
Didn’t anyone else see this? Isn’t anyone else concerned that we might be getting another non-elected co-president like Hillary?
Currently, we require elected officials to put any investments in a protected trust fund so they can’t manipulate their own investments based on the decisions they make or non-public information they have. If I were running the country, I would require that elected officials put their spouses in a protected trust relationship so that the spouse has absolutely no part in governing any part of this country until that official leaves office - no press conferences, no positions on exploratory committees (like Hillary-care), nothing! Stay at home, and bake cookies and give teas.
That, alone, has convinced me to not vote for Obama.
D
Mr. Jim:
Your are 100% correct Sen. John McCain will win in Nov and Sen. Obama and his liberal cohorts will fade into memory. Are you listening Sen. Clinton?
Why can I say this because the last 4 elections have no doubt shown that taxpaying Americans do not want a Tax & Spend persona in the White House.
Carter tied this with Regan it did not work, Mondole the pass the moola VP tied it in 84 and got creamed. Tax Hike Mike Dukasis tried in 88 and lost big time.
President Clinton got a breake since he did not mention taxs but invest in Gov incentives
But he lost ground with his ideas and for 6 of the 8 yrs he had to deal with Reps.
VP Gore lost because he was to good of a spokesman for the Clinton machine and was uisng CYA method of thinkning when running for Presadent in 2000.
Sen. Kerry voting records showned he was of the same mind set as well as Sen. I do not have the experice Obama.
They can run but none so far have been electable as President.
Had it not been for a spilt vote by Ross Periot we may only of had a memory a once ran Bill Clinton.
Wayne
Clovis, CA
pleeeeeze mccain? what a pipe dream….
by the way all you cons,,,, what makes mccain such hero?
oh yes i forgot ,,,,, immigration.
Obama/McCain = flip sides of the same coin; Obama’s too young, McCain’s too old…. both are too liberal, too quick to reap and spend taxpayer dollars.
Thank God there’s Bob Barr!!
I have news for all of you people, Obama has just lost 75% of the black vote! He said everyone will have a job if he takes office!!
Republican voters dropping ! Really !! Gee I wonder if it has anything to do with our institutions of higher indoctrination which duly mint identical molds to teach uniform diversity in political thinking
That is the way I’ve always heard it from my Family, The besty years are had with a REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT and a DEMOCRATIC HOUSE or SENATE. That keeps them fighting and they leave us alone!
Jim C:
Well put in a tight little nutshell. The election this fall is about Socialism vs. Freedom. I’ll take the latter.
We’re screwed with either one of these bozos. Say hello to illegal immigration amnesty, tax increases to pay for it, global warming cap and trade consumer price increases and more hand holding kumbaya with Euro- socialist states. Reaching across the aisle to spend more is gonna be the rage. The average Joe American won’t even get a reach around, though.
I am a registered Republican. My Dad is a registered devout Liberal Democrat. We agree on only one thing when it comes to Politics. That is that there is no way the Barack Obama should be President. (Does anyone really know anything about the Guy Obama anyway?) My Liberal Father will be voting for John McCain. That says it all for me.
It always makes me laugh when the Obama supporters liken him to Kennedy. Kennedy was the first president to send Americans to Vietnam, which is in fact the worst American blunder in history. Iraq doesn’t even hold a candle to Vietnam. I think 65,000 American deaths over the period of about 14 years with nothing to show for it but a hurried retreat ia a lot worse than almost 5,000 American deaths over 5 years in a country with it’s first democratically elected government in it’s history. Besides, Iraq is starting to look like it might actually work out.
Sn. Obama, the King of the cowards is an inexperienced Senator, let alone be President…Give me a break..McCain in 08…
Oboma should never make it to the presidency. 0 qualifications. I cant belive that the democrate have a guy running for them that just fell out of the sky. Nobody ever herd a word about this guy untill all of the sudden he is the democratic leader. I have got to point of not listining at all to what he has to say because it is completly pointless. Complaining about McCain, redoric just like his preacher that preaches not any religion not one word about the bible just raddels his congeration against the government.
I remind all the readers that Obama is first and foremost the product of the corrupt Illinois/Chicago political machine. He has done nothing of any consequence since he has held office, both in the Illinois and Washington. Further, look at the mess in Illinois, the Democrats own the whole shebang, Governor, Senate and House and all we get is a lot of nothing. If both Obama and Durbin (another idiot) wanted to do somethig meaningful, they should get those folks together for a “come to Jesus” meeting so that the serious issues that face Illinois could at least have a serious effort at resolution. Then go back to DC and do what we pay them to do, not pose for publicity shots. In the real world that the rest of us inhabit, Obama would not get hired to clean the outhouse, based on his performance results to date. These folks are supposed to represent us all. No more of this “not my job, man” garbage. No wonder Congress has a lower rating than Bush, it should not surprise anyone.
I will vote for McCain, at least you know where he stands.
I think voters react to whatever is going on at the time and that is why we typically have a split between the parties. Congressional elections don’t typically occur the same time as presidential elections. The current Congress, Dem majority, was elected essentially because they promised to pull the U.S. out of Iraq. (Those voters more enlightened with U.S. Constitution would recognize this is an impossibility, even if Congress controls the purse). As the current Congress was not able to follow through on their election promise, nor really any of their other pledges to voters, it is a possibility that voters could turn to the opposite party in the next election. However, I think Obama’s current popularity like that of Kennedy, as one of the comments above said, suggests it could still go either way. Alot of what happens in November will be determined by what happens in the next few months, especially with regards to China, the situation in Afghanistan, the Russian-Georgia conflict, and the economy. The internet and 24 hour news make predicting the elections as difficult as accurately predicting the weather.
‘bama can’t win.
mccain shouldn’t win.
political process is broken, situation exacerbated by media deciding ‘who’s hot’ before public can assess real strengths and weaknesses of a candidate.
time for change, yes……but in the process before anything else.
bizzarely, hillary could be a ‘unifying’ candidate by fall.
agree or disagree, your choice.
I have predicted every win correctly since Jimmy Carter’s election and although I don’t like McCain, I detest Obama. Just like the polls in the last election, they will be wrong. People will turn out to vote against Mr. Obama and he will lose. The press has campaigned and covered for Obama since Day 1 and independent Americans are sick of it. Obama says whatever is convenient, which is his character flaw. He is a typical, arrogant politician cloaked in a disguise that reporters don’t want to uncover. He is a socialist and knows NOTHING about economics. He is a threat to the fiscal stability of this country and his only solution of bigger govt will turn many off to him. My bumper sticker on my van reads, “The U.S. Media: Biased and Determined to Elect Our Next Presdient. Ethics have left the profession!” It will be a sad day when our lousy U.S. media picks our presidents; it’s about the same as Hollywood picking
Jeff, grow up. Just because you don’t agree with something doesn’t make it “hate filled.” And your religious biotry is showing. Try judging individuals…and do attend church before you condemn it. Last I checked, every statistic shows conservative Christians giving more in time, money and talent to the poor. You may learn something from those horrible Christians
Geesh…
Never believe anything you hear and only half of what you see. Politicians will always say what they think voters want to hear and often times it changes depending on the crowd. In the end they will do whatever they want to do, especially when it comes to staying in power. I sincerly hope Sen. McCain chooses a VP candidate that is conservative, a real conservative unlike himself, so conservative voters will not sit home on election day. Sen. Obama will condemn this country to poverty and socialism as is in Russia where the government hoards all the riches and doles out to the citizens as it sees fit. If the Democrats hold all branches of government and get a majority of liberal Supreme Court justices it will be open season on freedom and individualism and we will all be wearing the same uniforms as are seen so widely spread in the liberal education system now. I could go on forever here but that’s about all I have time for now. Every one in this country had better open their eyes and minds to what is going on in the world around us and stop taking everything that is spoken on the news as the Gospel and I mean scrutinize everything. We will never bring about a utopian society on our own so we’d better start thinking logically instead of just responding to “feelings”.
Please read the master’s thesis by “h. dale bowen” near the top of the comments list. Shows how the gov’ment skools have preeparred there stoodents.
I would not dare vote for a man with a comment like this “NATIONS DON’T INVADE NATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY” he is obviously very STUPID or just incredibly arrogant, what world is he living in are FREAKING SERIOUS, and we wonder why the world hates us , it’s because of IDIOTS LIKE THIS FOLKS
I think it is time that we as a nation really vote for change. Saddly there is no change really being offered. There are no really good third party candidates. At least in the sense that none of them has a chance of being elected. It is time for this nation to find third parties. To empower the other parties. Then the power of the two parties will be broken and politicians will have to start being accountable to the people versus only thier parties. Democrats and Republicans, it really doesnt make much difference, by and large they both will vote to empower their own agendas and ignore the will of the nation.
McCain will lose, because in the end, the voters will see him as the past, and Obama the future. McCain sees the world in terms of its threats and danger. Obama is more like Kennedy–optimistic and forward-looking, seeing it in terms of opportunities and challenges. Only the hopelessly cynical would elect a 72 yr old mini-me of Bush. McCain’s campaign is one of fear and desperation. How else can you characterize attacks on Obama for being “too eloquent” and “too popular.” It’s pathetic and the Republicans should be ashamed that they couldn’t come up with a better candidate.
the problem in america is america has let every nationality in the world come into our country and bring thier religion with them then tell american people we have to speek thier language and worship thier god I hate it for you people who follow these people there is a king james verson bible that tell’s us every thing that’s gona happen it has’n missed one little thing so far the white house and our leaders have robbed america it is the republican and dimocrats any time a man or woman will spend millions to make a couple hundred thousand tells me they are dirty and anytime men and women can give thier self a raise with out asking america first there is something wrong passing rules to justify steeling from us we need to stop putting lawyers in these jobs and put real working people in these job,s then america will prosper they send children to fight grownmen if they will bring those boy,s home and send men from 35to55 over there we will open up those oil lines and run oil in those bunkers and throw a match in behind it and watch old ben and friends come out the other end like a bunch of goffer rat,s god gave bush the same option he gave king soul and bush did the same thing soul did he tryed to save something for his self and as soul did isreal so did bush do to the united states
What are you talking about, frustration in Iraq. Most of the sissy liberals out there that are crying over Iraq have never served in our military and have no right to be upset. The soldiers over there are doing a job that needed to be done. It should have been done way back in the early 1990’s but we held back like idiots. What our men and women in the armed services are doing over there is not only necesscary but prudent. Violence is way down over there now and the liberal crybabies that want to give more of my money to themselves in congress wont tout victory, but they’d rather shout defeat. Further, I love how our congress, who stood side by side on those capital steps 7 years ago and spoke of solidarity, are lame ducking our president and doing nothing about the current crisis’ at hand. The Democrat answer? Lets go on vacation and spend some tax payer dollars frivilously. Disgraceful. They should all line up on those same steps and commit seppuku, for they have failed us miserably. Why will McCain win? He’s the only Republican left, and the Democrats have failed.
I did learn a lot from your observations and that gives me hope that we can win in November. It would be desastrous for our country if the Democrats would take total control of our govenment!
well it seems as mr. mCcain is on track,he is our man in va.look @ what happened @ demo.office today vote mCcain. thanks & you will be safe as the past 8 years.
Right on Jim. Look what united government got us under President Lyndon Johnson. An escalation of the Vietnam war, the war on poverty and Medicare, which threatens bankruptcy of our country.
In this day and age, it’s hard for me to tell the difference between Democrat and Republican.
I ask you, why vote for either if you don’t like them?
There are more than two parties, and there are usually more than two candidates for President. We just do not talk about the other candidates when they are there.
Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Constitution
Green
I usually vote for whom I think will act closest to what I believe that also has a chance of actually winning.
This time I’m just voting for the candidate that supports my beliefs, whether he’s got the popular vote or not. And it’s not going to be McCain or Obama.
I looked at Wikipedia for information about the parties. Here’s the link if you want it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_the_United_States
I know it’s not the most reliable source of information, but they do try.
Im canadian and I pray every day that the right man gets elected.That man is John Mcain because your country is our countrys last line of defence.All obama wants to do is weeken it for you and us.
Richard–
Yeah, and here’s the difference. Liberal is the baby, Socialist is the adolescent, and Communist is the adult. They all want the same thing, the equal distribution of poverty and misery among the general population.
You site one poll that has McCain ahead in order to boast your argument that McCain will win in Nov because he’s “doing well.” What about these polls? To also support your theory that McCain is doing well, you say McCain is putting Obama on the defensive. Uh, wasn’t Hillary doing the same thing in the 2nd a half of the primaries? And uh, wasn’t she behind? And doesn’t the candidate who usually trails in polls (the underdog) try to put the leading candidate on the defensive? Your first argument fails miserably. Good try.
My thoughts are McCain is doing everything to distract the voters from talking about the issues because more Americans favor the democratic position on issues than republicans and McCain knows this. His only hope is to distract the voters from talking about the real issues and scare them into voting for him. Typical neocon stuff.
As for your second argument, that you have specific knowledge of what Americans want (then shouldn’t you run McCain’s campaign?) based on history: “Americans like divided government”…um, since you work for a major news (cough cough) organization, don’t you think it would be more wise to ask probable voters this simple question, “Will the fact that there is a Democratically controlled congress make a difference in who you will vote for?” There, I just saved you this dribble of an opinion piece. Although you did a nice piece of research that a 5th grader could do, American history cannot be substituted for the current thinking of Americans. Sure, it can help predict what Americans might think, but it cannot absolutely replace the truth. The best way to seek truth is to ask for it directly…not write an opinion article.
James, I learned nothing new from your article. But then maybe you know something I don’t and are not telling me
Democat vote=Likely higher fuel prices. People are really “feeling the pain” with smaller check book balances because of long standing extreme eco-policies of NO DRILLIN’/NO REFININ’ oil here in our own oil-rich backyard. (and that’s the way most of the democrats like it because gas pollutes, etc)
SO–WHY would ordinary honest working americans vote for this type of politician(democrat) that supports policies (ie..no drilling!) that DIRECTLY causes them to pay more at the pump? Astonishing.
These Washington politicians are paid over $14,000 PER MONTH! at tax payer expense. They are given cars to use, etc. NO wonder they could careless about gas prices!! Folks, we are getting ripped-off by these politicians…wake up, people!
Richard, I beg disagree. Not that the Republicans are morally corrupt, but that the Democrats are any less so. We have all heard of the elections where the Democrats paid the homeless with cigarettes and booze to register and vote for the Democrat. Please get off your high horse and hear the music. Sadly, our elected politicians are only a reflection of our society and and thus can not be held solely responsible.
Ultimately I believe that McCain will win in November. Obama just doesn’t appeal to a large enough cross section of our society to win. Hes too liberal and quite frankly too smooth talking to be for real. To top it off his wife looks POed all the time. McCain will win and the Democratts will retain both houses of congress. You can put that in the bank.
Quote from Margot
I live in Pennsylvania, too, Northeast Phila., which is heavily concentrated with white voters. In the primary, our divisions saw a change of registration from republican to democrat (me too) so that we could vote for Hillary rather than Obama. Hillary Clinton thrashed Obama in our divisions in the Northeast by a huge margin. The same goes for the rest of th state where “those who cling to religion and guns” live
And this is deemed acceptable? That you change so you can influence what happens in the opposition party? Whilst it may not be illegal it shows how morally corrupt the Republicans are.
I read the comments and I pray for my country. Some of the comments show a total ignorance of our history. When my father’s family came here in the 1700’s they fought in every war starting with the American Revolution. If or when I get to Heaven I will apologize to all of them for the weak kneed,gullible, greedy fools who inhabit our country today
I never truly cared about politics until the 2004 election where I was brainwashed into believing every problem in the world is Bush’s fault. Luckily Bush won and after a bit of anger on my part I started really looking into the differences between democrats and republicans, liberals and conservatives. I have gone from an Independent to becoming a republican by this past primary. I, like most, have true conservative values but just didn’t know it.
My wife and I voted for Romney cause McCain is too Liberal but come election day I’ll take
Mccains Left leaning Conservativeness over Obama’s Socialist leaning Liberalness!!
Well for a Liberal state like NJ, I know most if not all of my friends and family are voting mcCain. The lack of experiance, shady friends (Wright, Rezko, Ayers), Socialist beliefs, and abortion support are scaring away people who actually look and listen to the issues.
time to adopt “dump the incumbent”, this will shake up the Washington elite!
Quote from Jim Collins:
I’d have to argue about the decline in Republican voter registration. I live in Pennsylvania and I changed my registration from Independant to Democrat just to have a vote in the primary election. I liked the idea of throwing a monkey wrench into the gears of the Democratic Party. I have full intentions of voting Republican in the general election. I know several people who have done the same thing. The numbers might be a little skewed.
I live in Pennsylvania, too, Northeast Phila., which is heavily concentrated with white voters. In the primary, our divisions saw a change of registration from republican to democrat (me too) so that we could vote for Hillary rather than Obama. Hillary Clinton thrashed Obama in our divisions in the Northeast by a huge margin. The same goes for the rest of th state where “those who cling to religion and guns” live. The chickens might be coming home to roost.
AOL poll is McCain 68% to Obama 32%. The aol voters are not “chosen” ones.
Rose:
Please, someone tell me why I should vote for Obama and not just for change.
“Becuz, like he is for change and other stuff, too.” Quote from one of the the “children” in Obama’s “Children Crusade.”
Jim, do you think Operation Chaos, Rush Limbaugh’s effort to get Republicans to switch their registrations to Democrat so they could vote in Democrat primaries, might have had something do do with the change in Republican voter registration? Shouldn’t we look a wee bit further than the end of the New York Times’ nose at these figures?
Think it might be that the Dems have the most radical, unqualified candidate in a generation? Even the fool McCain looks good by comparison.
The interesting thing about some of these comments is this, people are so willing to back one side or the other instead of realizing that neither of these parties has anything to offer us as Americans. They both have systematically taken away our freedoms. McCain will continue to follow in Bush’s footsteps and Obama will too. This is just a case of the lesser evil. The one you can live with and the one you can’t. As far as liberalism being likened to communism, you have to realize that both share the same goals at heart. While the words that liberals utter may be found pleasing, they are most surely only show. The truth is as simple as this: big government = less freedom. This is something the United States has been fighting for years and we, the people, are losing. Realize that the federal government has no authority over states and less authority to enact laws that we disagree with. I only hope that we can turn back the clock a bit and reign in this growing oppression before it’s too late.
McCain “likely” to win based on his age, experience and national defense. I agree that Congress will remain and possibly gain seats in Congress as McCain does not bring any coat-tails with him. HE IS BORING. The funny thing is I am reminded of 1992 GOP Convention in Houston when the GOP were so overconfident of 1992 so much they were more focused on the would be nominees for 1996. We know how that turned out. Overconfidence maybe the GOP’s weakness.
The GOP should consider forming a new party since the last the GOP controlled Congress really set back the party’s credibility for at least two decades.
Juan Jones - so the Conservatives have well thought out answers? Strange, considering the number of angry rants about “communism” I’ve read by people who don’t understand that Liberal, Socialism and Communist are entirely seperate and different from each other.
Jayson Bunch - “national debt has increased under Bush - but I pay less taxes”…quality! Yes, you pay less taxes because the government borrows the money from other countries instead to pay for stuff, selling bonds to the Chinese. as a result the dollar weakens, house prices fall, the economy crumbles, and then people complain about China having too much influence!
The country has been built on borrowed money rather than sustained from it’s own economy - do you not see how that is built like a house of cards?
You may not like being taxed, nobidy does, but it is a necessary evil to live in a democratic society.
During this November 08 election, the I think that the GOP needs to organize and install a strict control for the election process in order to prevent fraudulent activities of the democratic parties. It is commonly known that fraudulent activities have been conducted by the democrats as an example shown by the state of Alabama.
During the 2004 governatorial election in Washington State, I had a suspicion that the election process was not fairly conducted. At first the winner was Dino Rossi, who was the GOP candidate. But the democrats did not agree, they recounted and recounted the votes, until they got just a little over a hundred more votes for Gov. Gregiore. It was a contested election. King County was loaded with democrats.
Washington State is heavily democrat. Gov. Gregiore has been supported by the Federation of Unions, who control all the state employees. Gov. Gregiore has the support of the State funded colleges and universities due to huge budget appropriation that she provided out of the tax payers money. Washington State is pro-Obama.
Please help ! There are few GOP’s here whose voice are in the wilderness.
Thanks.
If the American voters can’t tell the differance between the Democratic and Republican
parties then someone has been living under a rock…
Todays Poll
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 46%. This is the first time in ten days that the candidates have been more than a single percentage point apart
Neither candidate republican or democrat are viable candidates in my opinion. Obama wants to solve the energy crisis by doing car tuneups which makes him an imbecile and John McCain who was captured by Nu Lu Siam, the Vietnamese guard after his plane was shot down and kept in the luxurious Hanoi Hilton and broke after 3 days of mild torture and babbled out all our secrets causing us to lose the war and agreed to become the “Raymond” in our Manchurian candidate saga of today. Just nine months ago John McCain and John Kerry returned from Vietnam after praising the communist dictatorship for supplying reliable labor (slave labor) for the new GM and Ford plants starting auto production this year after abandoning their Michigan and Indiana auto plants and firing their American workers. It is far better to vote for real American candidates like Ralph Nader or Bob Barr or Ron Paul.
This reminds me of the last horrible Star Trek movie, and despite the overwheming negative opinion about it, the writer still says he wrote a good movie. What else is he going to say?
So of course a right winger is going to say McCain is going to win.
McCain will probably win because Obama now supports the Iraq occupation and has voted for the FISL spy and torture law and he made it clear he supports the homosexual agenda (look what these sexual predators did to catholic church) and both he and democrats support illegal immigration and drug smuggling and open borders for terrorists to slip through. However the biggest Obama blunder was to solve the energy crisis by having everyone tuneup their car. I now advertise to everyone to get the Obama tuneup during the August sale price of $14.00. Of course there is a celebrity labor charge of $200.00 but don’t worry Obama knows how to spend your money.
60% does not a trend make. It is barely a pimple above 50-50, or ‘chance’ occurence.
Most normal people, outside the political chatterboxes, vote for a given candidate for local reasons and do not think about maintaining a ‘balance of power’ in Washington.
McCan’t will lose in November simply because he has no economic credentials. Neither does Obama, but at least he is not itching to get us into another war like McCan’t.
Why is it whenever anyone asks tell me why you would vote for Obama, all I ever hear is the same lines over and over and over…Bush bashing.
That’s your reason to vote for this man? So what you all are doing is voting against a party and not President Bush because he isn’t in the running?
Please, someone tell me why I should vote for Obama and not just for change.
I wouldn`t vote for Obama ever as president of our great country!!!!!!!!!!
McCain might earn my vote just as a anti-Obama vote.
It is of my opinon a very very sad choice of having to put one of these two guys in the White House in the first place.
It seems in the whole USA we could come up with someone better than Obama or McCain as our president but somehow we have failed and let a good man Mitt Romney get away who would make a great president…….It still would be the smartest decision for McCain if he were to choose Mitt as vice president. At least we would have someone able to step right in to being president if needed.
Mitt Romney would be a great choice for McCain and the USA.
McCain/Romney 08
A great team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John McCain will win the election. The States that will give McCain the edge are: My home state
Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, . What do these states have in common? Large numbers of
Hispanic voters that are no longer in the pockets of the Democratic Party. The Mexican-American
community has come of age. As the oldest and most dominant group in Hispanic America, they are no longer poor, uneducated and are extremely patriotic. They have the largest number of veterans and the largest number of children in Uniform. They are also conservative Christians and detest the politics
of the left wing Democrats. Want proof. Check out McCain’s voter appeal in Arizona. McCain
took 65% of the Mexican American vote in his home state and this election he will match or exceed those numbers. Two reasons, We love our country and we trust McCain. and those of us who fought the Black community for community funds in the 60’s and 70’s dont trust Obama and the Black leaders
that are pushing the BLT agenda. Chicanos will not vote for a Black Muslim Candidate. We know our
history.
Either way the Republicans win. If Obama wins, the Dems will destroy this country. That may forever put an end to the Dummocrat party. Bring on the next revolution!
Voter registration statistics this year are an aberration, as anyone - apart from the New York Times! - who followed the Democratic primaries well knows. The Obama campaign perverted the party registration process to ensure that their candidate’s nomination by the Democratic Party would not be hindered by registered Democrats (who voted in the majority for Hillary Clinton) in the closed primaries. As a result, many Republicans and independents changed their registration to Democrats because they wanted to support (or not) a particular candidate rather than because they support the party. These new “registrtants” will in no way behave as party faithful in voting this fall.
It’s also beyond irritating that the MSM is now reporting on voter registrations as if a voter registration is a vote. It is NOT - and in this election year, it is not even an indication that the registrant will actually vote at all, let alone for their designated party. On the contrary…
These stories on voter registration are fluff, another PR coup from the Obama / Dean camp. This year, in stark contrast to the the Democratic primaries, the general election story is not about voter registration. It’s about split tickets.
Although I agree with your theory I think you are doing the voters a diservice when you suggest we can’t possibly be that picky. As an Independent voter I have split my vote several times I even voted Republican in the last presidential election. However had I known that my president was going to place idiots in the role of advisor and defence secretary,then I would have most certainly would have voted Democrat. Also don’t be fooled,if the DNC is honest then they have seen a decline as well. This is do by and large to Americans getting tired of all the “it’s their fault” that goes around washington. So my advice to the two respective parties is to tell your fringes like Rosie O’Donnel, Ann Coulter to shut up and tell your candidates to stop making empty promises that they know they will never be able to carry out and start telling the public what they want to hear and start telling us what we need to hear.
Thank you for allowing me to speak my mind on this subject.
PEACE OUT
An Independent Truth
I think the idea of the voters wanting a divided government is a lot of rubbish. Local politics is very different from national politics. North Dakota is a very conservative state with the state elected officials mainly Republican, the Legislature heavily Republican but all of the Congressional delegation is Democrat. The state has voted Republican in most elections. The congressional incumbents have a huge advantage and do a good job of servicing their constitutes. The Republicans haven’t had a strong candidates for those positions in years so they don’t get elected. I don’t believe that the people have deliberately set out in this case to elect a divided government. A substantial portion of the voters vote for the man not the party.
This divided government theory is something that gets repeated so many times that eventually most of the pundits believe it whether it is true or not.