FOX Forum

How to Defeat Iran… Without Firing a Shot

By John Moody
Executive Vice President of FOX News

Iran seems these days almost an overwhelming problem. It is pursuing nuclear weapons, it is boldly exporting terrorism, and it has, after Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest proven reserves of underground petroleum.

So, let’s cut off its oil supply.

Yes, I know I just said it has huge petroleum reserves. But raw petroleum is useless as energy until it is refined into gasoline and other byproducts. Iran has almost no domestic refining capacity. It imports almost all of its refined energy needs, about 95,000 barrels of gasoline a day, according to Kent Moors, the president of ASIDA Inc. and director of Energy Policy Research Group at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh.

An effective embargo on the delivery of refined petroleum would shut off the lights across Iran within weeks and turn its population – already chafing under Islamic rule, a creaky economy and unpopular gasoline rationing – murderously rebellious.

The leadership is acutely aware of the razor-edge of public sentiment. The Majlis, Iran’s parliament, just approved spending $5 billion to increase gasoline imports and may have to hike them again in August if consumption isn’t curbed.

At a time when we are faced with dire energy choices here, the poetic elegance of using oil as a weapon against Iran is deliciously satisfying. I wish I had thought of this myself, but credit must go to someone who doesn’t want his name used.

Before we declare victory, however, be aware: this is not, to borrow an expression from the CIA, a slam-dunk. Iran imports its refined oil from various sources, including China, Russia and, our favorite neighbor to the south, Venezuela.

To make the plan work, the U.S. must get cooperation from those countries to suspend deliveries to Iran. Venezuela is certain to refuse; China also is likely to balk, since it imports its enormous crude oil needs from Iran, refines it, and sends some of it back by sea.

The response to non-cooperation: a U.S. naval embargo. The terms for lifting it: Iran must end its nuclear ambitions. It is important not only that Iran give up on nuclear weapons, but that it not be allowed even peaceful nuclear technology. Why? Because home-grown nuclear energy would undermine the effectiveness of future embargoes.

An embargo of Iran is an act of war. It carries risks. But it’s a better, cheaper and safer option than an all-out attack.

84 Responses to “How to Defeat Iran… Without Firing a Shot”

Comment by chris

This is an excellent idea! Makes me wonder why the person who came up with it wouldnt want his name used….?

 
Comment by Jeff Toner

Is a U.S naval embargo of Iran possible without prompting a military response from China? Disrupting China’s flow of petroleum products sounds pretty dangerous to me.

 
Comment by Lloyd Ban

So let me understand you, you proposed that us navy blocked Russian and Chinese commerce, blocked Venezuelan and Iranian commerce and hope they don’t do anything. Now imagine this retaliation to the blockade. Iran mined the straight of hormuz, fired Zelzal gorund to sea missile at passing tankers. Bombed oil platform in the gulf. Carry suicide operation at oil field in Arabia. Iran does not have to attack Israel to cause havoc. Imagine also Chinese troops reaction to their ships being boarded by US Sailors, I bet they would greet us as liberators. Russian cargo ship being blocked from international waters by US navy, I bet they would welcome us with flowers. The problem with people who write silly opinions like you is that you have a bloated idea of our powers and you underestimate our ennemies. Here lies the problem, you can’t win wars or conflicts if you do not have a healthy respect for your ennemies. We are a very powerful country but we are not god. One of the lesson of Iraq is that no mather how mighty you think you are, you must avoid hubris. I know this because I have seen with my own two eyes what a small disk of copper do to mighty expensive piece of military equipments in Iraq. As a former soldier, I hope we learn some humility. God bless America and those who died protecting it. By the way Iran is not Shrimp.

Thank you

Lloyd

 
Comment by Gavin

Not a bad plan. It illustrates why Iran would want to continue with a civilian nuclear program even though it could get the nuclear fuel cheaper if it gave control away to the EU.
The one problem is that Iran will definitely not want to give up its civilian nuclear program because of the vulnerable position it will be in. While US troops are in Iraq, they are vulnerable. Iran are attacking troops there now but could do a lot worse if they felt they had nothing to lose. There is a difference between training/arming militia members and mass producing roadside bombs and sending them to Iraq with the Iranian army.
Still, it would make Iran take the first real step towards all out war. Rather than a US attack on nuclear facilites initiating things.

 
Comment by Kevin

I think we cannot do this without have Afghanistan and Iraq pacified first. That has been our only issue. With our forces split amongst 2 wars we do not have the military power to full implement an embargo or a response to an attack from Iran or China against an embargo. I really doubt China will want to attack us since how they own our national debt and when we are at war with them the debt becomes nothing and their economy will crumble because it is built on toothpicks anyway.

 
Comment by Andy

Well, invading the U.S. Embassy in Teheran was an act of war, only the feckless James E. Cartrer refused to admit it. So technically we have been at war in Iran since that time. The embargo would be preferable to dropping a nuke on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

 
Comment by wnbresn

Another example of why republicans should be kept out of the White house. If we declare an Navel embargo against Iran we have to enforce it . China likes Iran, China will not like us trying to stop the gas being shipped back to Iran. China has no reason to back down to US since they already own our debt. What will China do when we sink or board their ships? Do we really want to go to war with China??

 
Comment by Ed Lowery

Is this something we should rush into? An oil embargo is precisely what begot Pearl Harbor.

 
Comment by Michael

This is an excellent suggestion, but must be nuanced. My understanding, contrary to Jeff’s, is that the embargo would prevent refined fuel into Iran, not crude out. Permitting the crude to be exported would not impact China significantly, but would impact Iran extensively, and impact Venezuela significantly by affecting their pocketbook. Russia would also have some impact, again not enough for them to do more than belly ache about it. With the Olympics this summer China would be hard pressed to respond militarily while trying to convince the world body they have ‘grown up’ beyond the responses of a totalitarian state and ‘know’ how to behave in the world arena.

 
Comment by Brian from Texas

I liked your Plan A. Economic and political pressure is the only option.
But Plan B, a naval embargo of Iran?! Yeah, China would love that. We should ask ourselves how the US would feel and react if China put a naval embrago on Saudi Arabia. We really need to avoid making China mad, unless you want to ask for a world war or another nuclear standoff. That’s one country we want to stay on good terms with for the next 100 or so years.

 
Comment by Miss Piggy

why dont we drop plane loads of pigs in mini skirts. that should keep the mulahs busy. and while they are busy with the pigs bumping and humping cook them some good old fashioned bacon and eggs sunni side up by then theyed all be dead on their feet no need to attack or have oil embargo.

 
Comment by Bill

If China threatens a military response then the US should immediately halt all imports from China. That would get their attention. China also has a high dollar amount of US Treasury debt. Tell them, “enjoy your worthless paper”.

 
Comment by Doug Jordan

I don’t know about anyone else, but neither China, Russia, or anyone else’s military scares me, particularly at sea. All this would do is cause some saber rattling and eventual talks by the concerned parties. No one in the world wants to fight a war, much less with America. If our recognition of the two China system does not get a response from China, then I doubt a embargo of Iran would. However it’s all moot, Israel will certainly deal with Iran when the time comes.

 
Comment by Will

I just read that iran is about to build something like 5 refineries buy 2012. They see that weakness and are going to do something about it. Unlike the U.S. , we just beg saudies to please drill more then the saudies go back and cut back on output, slowly strangling our economy. We need our own energy supply, drill more of our own, build some nuclear plants, invest in alternatives. It wont help right now but oil is not going to go down in price. it might help 5 to 10 years from now when oil is 250 a barrel. As far as iran nukes go, the genie is out of the bottle. too little too late.

 
Comment by Will

I just read that iran is about to build something like 5 refineries buy 2012. They see that weakness and are going to do something about it. Unlike the U.S. , we just beg saudies to please drill more then the saudies go back and cut back on output, slowly strangling our economy. We need our own energy supply, drill more of our own, build some nuclear plants, invest in alternatives. It wont help right now but oil is not going to go down in price. it might help 5 to 10 years from now when oil is 250 a barrel. As far as irans nukes go, the genie is out of the bottle. too little too late. Thanks china, russia , UN. I hope you get yours.

 
Comment by Jon Myers

I don’t believe this would work, typically embargos only result in bitterness and anger toward the country that has imposed it, usually resulting in nationalist sentiments that their government would be able to use to reinforce their weakening state. I also doubt we could get Russia to agree to embargo Iran, who’re (seemingly) friendly toward us, let alone China and Venezuela, two countries who have significant anti-US sentiment. I think a much better plan would be to try to convince the people themselves to overthrow their government. Of course, that’s not a perfect plan either, since they’d have their entire army to contend with, and currently the international community would be about as much help to a revolting population as a firecracker. I don’t see any quick way to take out the Iranian regime. Although we have many options for the long-term, short-term options are limited. Reform is not going to happen from within their own government, and the people are out-gunned, and cannot rely on help from any international source. Our government’s been bitten in the ass too many times by people that we helped (Osama bin Laden, for one) to be willing to arm and support revolutionary groups within Iran.

 
Comment by Richard

I agree with your column except for the portion that denies Iran the right to “nuclear technology” for energy purposes. Denying a country the right to modern technology that would reduce the overall use of a non renewable resource such as oil is not justified. If Iran were to develop such energy and not be as concerned about a “future” oil embargo, they should then be made aware that if they do not suspend activity designed to provide them nuclear weapons, that they will be subject to preemptive strikes to stop them.

 
Comment by tom legan

perhaps we could convice china to reduce deliveries of refined fuel by 50-60 percent.

 
Comment by Lee Merritt

What an extremely elegant solution - send it to the white house with an urgent request for implementation!!!

 
Comment by Sheila Lee

Believe it or not, your commentary has been on my mind most of the afternoon and I do have a few thoughts. There is something that sounds familiar about Iran’s nuclear capabilities… We were told that Iraq and Saddam Heuissein had nuclear capabilities and WMD’s then finally found Heuissein crawling around in a hole in the ground. How do we know that Iran has this capability of nuclear capabilities? Who is telling us this? Where is their information coming from? Is there evidence? The one point that I find extremely relevant is the fact that you say that Iran has all this petroleum but no refining capabilities so China imports a huge amount, refines it, and sends it back to Iran. I’m wondering, if Iran has no refining capabilities with all that petroleum, then how can they have significant nuclear capabilities? We have been told about Iran’s nuclear threat for a few years now and I think the American people should know where the information is coming from. Punishing the Iranian people is a serious thing without a cause. Sometimes people have no control over their leaders and I see no reason for Americans to behave in such a way for China to balk since most of what we consume in this country is made in China. My thought is that what you are suggesting could be the beginning of a world war and I’m not sure what you see that we have to gain if they do or don’t have nuclear capabilities.

 
Comment by Rick

Oooooooooh, what a secret! Hey, I think we should implement this. Let’s just not tell them and maybe they will be surprised.

 
Comment by Ohio Realist

Whaddya mean “…an all-out attack”???? You know how it will come down, Israel-Iran squabble, back and forth ’strikes’, hot rhetoric, we lob a few cruise missiles as the enforcement arm of NATO/UN—a few Tomahawks to ‘preserve the peace/stability”….Russia/China ‘deplore’ our actions wink-wink, sell some Anti-aircraft systems to Iran, raise various anti-Israel resolutions in UN to counter our anti-Iran resolutions…another remote controlled proxy conflict.

 
Comment by shain

so you think USA blokkade the see with out any UN mandat and Iranian and other nation dont do anything (in second world war , war between Japan and Usa start by US see blokkade).
By international law see blokkade means act of war so if USA start to do that with out any UN approve means USA start war with Iran ofc at that moment USA cant say they start war with Usa,I think any action must only done with UN Approve ,and if you think the Iranian are push over you are wrong ofcurse USA can bomb some instalation in Iran and Iran retaliate with some missiles and UN come and both stop but what happend after ,they say to world they didnt do anything wrong and usa start war againts them ,also if USA do any action with out any approve they are not many country stand by USA ,and the Iranian send all inspectors home and come out of NP threaty and now they have open hand to do all what they want with diffrent they get all support from his people (at this moment the most Iranian are againts Mullahs) but in time of war they are all behind their goverment like any other country .
I think and I believe the people in washington also know this any action must only done with UN and other countries

 
Comment by Mike in NYC

“It is important not only that Iran give up on nuclear weapons, but that it not be allowed even peaceful nuclear technology. Why? Because home-grown nuclear energy would undermine the effectiveness of future embargoes.”

The Ugly American strikes again.

Iran, like it or not, is entitled to a peaceful nuclear program. Should it eventually demonstrate that its program is, in fact, peaceful, that should settle the matter.

What would then be the purpose of future embargoes? Moody doesn’t know, and clearly doesn’t care. As far as he is concerned, any nation whose foreign policy is not consonant with U.S. “interests” should be bullied into submission.

The dream of a unipolar world is dying, and that is a most welcome development.

Pax Americana, not.

 
Comment by chris

Does anyone remember last Friday when Israel basically gave a notice to the world that they will take out it’s nuclear reactors if Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons. Remember how oil set a one day all time price jump of $10 a barrel? Israel attacking Iran is an actual event that will take place (in my own opinion) by the end of the year. Ahmadenijad and the ayatollah regime in Iran are begging either the U.S. or Israel to attack them because they believe that they can bring about the end of the world and they will only have about half the oil available that they have now to sell by 2012. Iran is basically a theocratic type of a rulership that has no problem with a war for religious purposes and has almost no choice now but to taunt Israel into an attack. The U.S. doesn’t have to do anything but, sit back and “wait” for Israel to reenact Lebanon. The only problem is that about 4 million barrels of oil, about 4.5% of global oil production will be taken offline and who knows if 4 million barrels of extra global oil capacity exists elsewhere. I do know that to compensate for the unknown, there will be gas shortages for who knows how long and more pain at the pump. Oh, and if you think that Irans’ pursuit of nuclear energy is peaceful then why did they choose an energy source that can be used for weapons and not solar or wind. I’m sure that the international community would have worked a deal to help them if they needed to produce energy on a large scale that was peaceful. Bottom line is the Iranian leadership is bent on martyrdom as they see it and all the U.S. needs to do is watch and wait for their destruction when Israel delivers it to them.

 
Comment by Amy Burch

I think that an embargo is an excellent idea. Unfortunately, judging by the comments left by most in response to this idea, I don’t think that this country is ready to make and follow through with such a plan. Maturity and intelligence are required to make such a plan work. Considering the fact that the general population of Americans has the attention span and patience of a gnat an embargo would require too much resolve. Simply put: it would take too long for our “instance gratification” culture. We would rather placate terrorists than to make a strong and thoughtful stand. I love this country however; as the wife of a US Marine I am sick of sacrificing daily for a nation of emotional two year olds. Grow up people!

 
Comment by Victor Vasquez

For some reason Americans always look for the most direct and difficult approach to solving things. The recommendation listed above is on the right track but it depends on getting several other countries with no vested interest to cooperate. I recommend a slightly different approach to attack the same vulnerabililty. Lets try incrementaly removing the Benzine subsidies in Iraq and allow the price to go up. Currently there is a thriving black market on both sides of the border due to government subsidies keeping the price of Benzine artificially low. If the price were to increase on the Iraq side of the border, the black market would suck what refined products are left in Iran into Iraq where more money can be made by selling cheap, subsidized, Iranian Benzine to a neighbor within easy smuggling distance. People respond to incentives even if a government does not. Crippling Benzine shortage in Iran without a shot being fired or any type of hostile action whatsover.

 
Comment by D Goodwin

America is roaming around the world bombing at will. You are a terrorist state, who do you think you are? Some of the comments here are ignorant, chinas economy built on toothpicks? what about yours? naval blockade? you cant even get Iraq under control. You guys need to wake up, your country has become a monster in the international stage.

 
Comment by Tony Story

You know, you just can’t fix stupid!
We need to go ahead and nuke Iran into submission.
At the same time take over Venezuela. Tell Russia and China their next.
That will never happen because our polititions are such cowards.
What a shame!

 
Comment by FOB Sweetie

This title is interesting, and it shows exactly what’s causing all these problems in this country.

You never have had to plane to defeat Iran.
It is their problem, not Americas.

Leave them alone. You have alot of your own to worry about in America, not in Iran or Iraq.

 
Comment by HypnoToad

Interesting concept, poorly plotted. Why should we personally embargo when Iran has rabid, foaming, easily-deluded fanatical enemies who will do the job for us? Convince the Sunnis (or the Shiites…I can never remember that crud) of the need to cripple Iran economically. Tell them the way to 72 virgins is to suicide-bomb Iran’s refineries. It would only take a couple refineries out of business and presto! Civil unrest that Amadjerkathon couldn’t blame on us or Israel. (Ever notice how those jerks blame everything –EVERYTHING, including bad hair days or flat tires–on us and Israel?)
It is a fact that Iran has a large, oppressed percentage of population that wants freedom and capitalism back. So the gas-shortage concept is right-on: Get the locals to kick their twit “president” (dictator) out of office.

 
Comment by Russel Polk

The only reason Iran is so strong right now is because they believe America is too politically indecisive to really take any action. If America showed its determination to end this threat, they would back down. No, we are not God, but we ARE one of the only countries that can stop this nuclear threat before we end up with nuclear attacks on our soil.

What people don’t understand is that Ahmedinijad will trade the destruction of cities in a heartbeat. If he nukes Tel Aviv, he believes they will all go to Hell. If Israel nukes Tehran, they will all die a martyrs death and go to Heaven. For him it is a no-brainer. Listen to his rhetoric! THAT is why Iran MUST be denied nuclear power, as quickly as possible.

 
Comment by Iranian

You’re just ignoring the human-side of your proposal. By sanctioning Iran, lives of millions of Iranians will be put at risk. Just imagine thousands of hospitals and health centers without electricity, the macro-economic effects of energy cut which will damage food and water supplies and all the suffering imposed on the innocent people. You’re speaking like you’re playing Civilization™, not playing with people’s lives in a real world, while all of this is based on a doubtful assumption that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and a more doubtful one that if it does, it will use them.

Also all the same arguments can be taken to propose a naval blockade against the US (stockpiling nukes, having used them before, supporting terrorism against its foes, attacking other countries, threatening to attack other countries, etc).

 
Comment by Kurt

This plan is problematic at best. I agree something more drastic then simple diplomacy must be done, and any, and all negotiations have done little thus far. So there is no reason to believe that further talks will have any better results. We can talk until the cows come home, but their nuclear program goes on. But hostile acts against the world powers, sounds like were biting off a whole lot more then we can chew. The key here is international pressure. Certainly Israel will not allow the Iranian Nuclear program to see fruition. And it’s not in anyones best interest (China, Russia etc.) to see the region collapse into war. I believe an ultimatuim must be delivered, and then if not adhered too, then some sort of military airstrike with coalition forces. Attack strategic targets only. You don’t have to take it all out, but crippling the program enough so that when you do get back to the bargaining table, you will have a lot more leverage.

 
Comment by HawkeyeDJ

Without a shot? Enlisting the cooperation of other countries? THAT’S NOT the American way! GW Bush has shown us how we get what we want. “Either you are with US or against US!” As soon as we can arrange the contracts with Halliburton or whoever, we can put “boots on the ground.” And if this should breed resentment for America around the world, even create more terrorists who are willing to die for their cause? “Bring ‘em on!”

Now, isn’t that a lot more sexy than what you propose?

 
Comment by Farzin Khorram

It sounds like a good idea if it works, but this the time for severe action ,not just good ideas. The bottom line we need to make the Islamic govt,to pay for what it has done to its own people,and know wants to do the sameto the entire region and eventully to the world. WE MUST OVER THROW THE ISLAMIC FANATICS SOON .We need action very soon.

 
Comment by TERRY M

Sounds OK to me; the comment “without firing a shot”.

What if, in turn, sympathiser nations, in turn, then shut off deliverys of crude oil to the US.

Do we, can we, then hold all the world hostage to our food exports ???

Do we then escalate into a world war III ???

Could we simply shut our borders to all China’s imports. Bring back the jobs to our nation
to supply our needs and ignore the rest of the world…..

Fact is, Mr Moody, vice pres of Fox News,

Nothing is really simple…..

I think, personally we just need to take out their reactor with a very small nuclear bomb….
Then we would not have to worry anymore. They wanted nuclear power: we give to them, literally.
By using a very small nuclear bomb, the world will believe us when we say “Gee…there was an awful lot of radiation….something must of gone wrong and it blew up”

The beauty of this is that even they will think the same thing…..besides, with all that radiation, who is going to get deep inside to investigate what really happened….

From a poor struggling business man in the US who wants someday to build an interprise that gives
it all back to the people…..sad fact is, this economy is crippling my used car business and I may never
realize my dream of philanthropy, unless I just stumble into a million dollars or more.

My desire is to reach every community in America, forever and forever…. know anyone who wants to donate to my cause….old people, young people, sick people, poor people

I did like your suggestion, by the way…… I simply wanted to comment on it. I also have a lot of good
ideas, too bad I can’t sell them. Now you know that I am truly a conservative, but with a heart.

Terry M.
Beater Auto Sales….

 
Comment by Jonny

Sounds good in theory but probably wouldnt work. Remember, Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s rule was embargoed for many long years after the first Gulf War. The only thing allowed out and in was under the “food for oil” agreement (sadly - the money was pocketed by Iraqi officials and not spent on food). In any event, the Saddam Hussein dictatorship did not collapse from the embargo, although the people seemed to be collapsing. The US, Israel, Europe etc have precious little time left to prevent Iran from getting nukes. A radical problem at this point requires a radical resolution.

 
Comment by Sarah

This is a great article and the idea of a naval embargo of Iran , the embargo will increase people’s unsatifcation toward the governement and it will provoc them to come out to street, themore people are unhappy of theregime the sooner regime change will happend in Iran. As an Iranian person who lives in America, I can assure all american that they willhave safer and happier live if regime of Iran changed to a Democratic government, regime of Iran supporting terrorism all over the world, executing young people on street of cities in iran, poverty has increased so much, then it is time for American Government to take different approch in regard to Iran: US administration has to follow European parliement decision as well as Uk court of Appeal and delist the only opposition of Iran from their black list, US administration has to respect every body’s right including american citizen by supporting the opposition of Iran because only this oppoition is able to change the regime of Iran.
Western countries including US have to stop appeasement policy toward Iran since it has not changed iranian regime behaviour.

Good article, Thanks for idea, it is time for US administration to pen their eyes and stop apeasement policy, they say something and they do something else behind close doors . They meet Iranian regime’s Rep in European countries and make all deals with them then in media they claim that Iranian regime is supporter of terrorist, if they believe in it then why they meet this terrorist regime ?

 
Comment by Jamie

OH PLEASE…..! GIVE ME A BREAK…! We have enough problems as it is. We don’t need people like you giving Congress one more crazy idea to start “Blow’em up, Run’em Down”. Why don’t you come up with something more rational like drilling up in Alaska and off the coasts of California, Florida and the rest of the Gulf Coast. And while we’re at it, maybe we could support some companies in building some more refineries or maybe, just maybe, we could look at some conversion technology with natural gas. I’m from Texas and they’re drilling gas wells like there’s no tomorrow. We’ve got more natural gas than oil. Needless to say friend, go find something else to excite your imagination! Really………..

 
Comment by Warren Trout

Why not just let them have nukes. They will start a war with Israel as they state this almost every day. The Middle East will be in ruins and the rest of the world will have to outgrow our dependance on oil very quickly.

Of course, we can blame it all on Bush for letting it happen. Thus the left will fell good about themselves.

 
Comment by Eric

You gotta love the moaning and wailing from some of these folks about a reasonable alternative short of taking out Iran’s nuke facilities (and their military capability which would have to go at the same time). Of course, once again the moaners put forth no realistic, actionable solutions. The world can wring it’s hands all they want but sooner or later will have to put up or shut up over Iran having nukes, and it’s not like they’ve made it a big secret over what they would like to do with them.

I’ll tell you how NOT to get what you want out of Iran, China and Russia - Publicly fret over whether or not you’re hurting their feelings. They read that message loud and clear.

Whomever we have in the White House next season, they have to make it clear that we would highly prefer to be friends but are perfectly capable and willing to be brutal enemies, when the stakes are as high as this.

In that respect it’s like effective parenting - you have to make the available choices stark and clear, and if you aren’t ready to back it up with the stated consequences then they WILL walk all over you.

 
Comment by Ed Blokdijk

This plan in theory could work, but in the current climate of the nations involved will fail and/or will have the same impact as an all out attack. Besides it should not be a U.S. naval embargo, I rather see the NATO involved or take charge of the embargo. Small nations like Venezuala (and others) have ridiculed and ignored America numerous times not showing any fear of retalliation of our Superpower. A few countries no longer look at America as being a Superpower, we have made it no secret that we are “broke” with a questionable economy, and a President that is much disliked according to published polls. The world knows that Afghanistan and Iraq keep our troops pretty much occupied and to start another war is not a real option for a President who is at the end of his term. We can clearly support Israel and the NATO when necessary, but going in alone is not a very good plan. I am sure that Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Turkey and Lebanon to name a few will combine forces to launch an attack on Israel in the near future. Israel will have to determine to either take the lead against Iran or wait for Iran to execute their threats against them. As a matter of fact with everything that is going on we may be forced to have a draft in place to support our military forces.

 
Comment by Tom Lee

Sooner or later, America must stop Iran. Do it now before the next 911, which will be more catastrophic than ever.
This country tried to appease Hitler, look where that led. The difference is the Jihadists are suicidal. Appeasing Liberals, Progressives or what ever they want to be called will be the death of us all.

 
Comment by Bob

What would happen to the oil reserves if the oil eating bacteria found it’s way into the reserves? Hmmm…

Got Bacteria?

 
Comment by Max Effort

I would expect that, placed under an oil embargo by the US, Iran would respond with a missile attack on Israel and also on our troops in the Middle East. The possibility of such a response is the likely reason that this option has never been utilized — to protect our ally as well as our own troops.
Any action against Iran would require that any offensive air and missile capability they possess must first be destroyed on the ground. The US could accomplish this alone or Israel could accomplish this with US assistance and cooperation. But our first step must be to destroy their capability to retalliate and to gain air supremacy.

 
Comment by Max Effort

Some participants in this discussion fear making China mad. Deja vu?
This is reminscent of Lyndon Johnson’s fear of making both China and Russia mad because of our military actions in Vietnam and Laos.
Fighting a limited war out of fear of making another sovereign country mad will only result in our inability to achieve our objectives.
Fear of making any country mad should never be a reason for US not to act in our own best interests.
This is also reminiscent of the liberal mindset that the US should go out of its way to “be liked” by the other countries of the world. This is self-defeating — especially when you consider that there are more than a few countries who would like it very much if the US were turned into a third-world country, that we would receive a come-uppance that they feel is long overdue.
The President is not elected to win a popularity contest among other nations. He is elected to administer the executive branch of government, conduct foreign relations on behalf of the 50 states, and see to the security of our nation.

 
Comment by Warren Dixon

The point of the proposed embargo would be to deny Iran the ability to produce oil. Michael is wrong. It would eventually stop movement of oil in both directions.

For those who have not been watching what is going on in China, it is not only an emerging economic power that has been propping up the U.S. dollar (because it is also a huge trading partner), it has been building up its military strength in order to protect its economic interests. Yes, the days of the Communists’ doctrinaire “overthrow the Imperialists because they are there” may be gone - but they have been replaced by the classic basis for war - competition for resources.

Such a blockade is simplistic. I doubt that either China or the U.S. wants such a war, but it is a distinct possibility. And they have been building their forces, while we have done little to keep ours; witness the current budget pressures to cancel our F-22 fighter program, forcing continued reliance on the 25 year old F-15 that we had already begun retiring - while the Chinese build a fighter every bit as capable as the F-22.

And in the shorter term, the Chinese need not fire a shot. All they’d need to do is stop aiding the dollar. The effect on our economy would be devastating.

It’s not a good move, unless we have agreement by the major players - which isn’t likely.

 
Comment by Rae

I keep wondering why we broadcast public warnings to Iran, does anyone in Washington actually think public requests are going to stop them? Or this supposed to be how we ‘cover our butts’ before going to war?

An oil embargo with China Russia and Chavez backing us up? Boy I needed a good laugh this morning and this was it…I dont know which of these four sour grapes wants to see the U.S. disappear fastest.

The only recent comment in the media that made sense is one that’s been ignored, by actor Omar Shariff– the Arab countries are not interested in democracy, they are a tribal society and will continue to be ruled by tribes. In the meantime, any billions in aid and sacrifices of our soldiers on their behalf…is just fine with them.

 
Comment by on_the_gannon_trail

It’s up to the CIA to improve its intelligence on Iran and avoid another Iraq like debacle,
get the proofs first and Bush should stop the rethorics which help boost the speculation on oil prices.

 
Comment by Howland Owl

This is not the answer as when the lights go out in Iran, the pumps stop too, and no oil will reach the ports for shipping to anywhere, and once again the price of a barrel of oil will skyrocket. Sounds to me as though we’d be shooting ourselves in the foot..

 
Comment by RSR

Iran, lying to the world awearing thier NOT building a Nuclear Bomb should not have anyone concerned in the least…right up to the bright flash & loud boom over Israel!!!! And World War 3 begins. Seems like doing something involving less risk would be prudent. But, something better be done soon before its too late…boom!

Place the embargo into effect, tell China that we will still allow Iran to send oil to China. But gasoline being sent back to Iran would have to be held in escrow temporarily until Iran complies.

 
Comment by T.Paine

This is nuts, but not for the reason our liberal/progressive/socialist friends might suppose. A Naval embargo risks war (remember Cuba & the Soviets?) A more promising and payback to the Iranians for our troops killed in Iraq would simply be to fund dissident groups in Iran. It would terrify the terrorists and Mullahs. (but I repeat myself)

 
Comment by victor hull

I agree with you . set up multiple nukes , cancel the money to china if it gets involved and be prepared to take out Iran if she bulks . I would love to be a part of it . Also I have decided to NOT BUY ANYTHING FROM CHINA OR IRAN !!!!!

 
Comment by Scott

As a current active-duty Commander in the Navy, my view:

1. U.S. Navy’s core strategic mission is to maintain safety of sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and ensure free-flowing commerce around the globe. Enforcing a naval blockade as discussed (either crude out or refined gasoline into Iran) would go against that. We’ve done it in the past - but only as tantamount to a declaration of war. There are many more diplomatic measures and INTEL to gather before we should take such a drastic step.

2. Echo comments by others regarding unintended consequences - if U.S. acts unilaterally with negative results towards Russia and China, the problem becomes a LOT harder and more dangerous. Perceptions of U.S. around the globe actually do matter - so we’d better have a wide coalition (with approval of a UNSCR resolution) before undertaking such an embargo.

3. What about Russia & others helping to get gasoline into Iran overland instead of by sea? Naval blockade can’t stop that. They would still be hurting but look how the sanctions against Iraq worked (very poorly). Why should we be more optimistic regarding Iran?

4. Regarding tenuous allegience of Iranian people towards their government. This is true - but all indications are that they are very nationalistic and proud as well - the “hurt” which is inflicted by an embargo might backfire - that is, it could be used to fire up their population to resist America and come together to fight us…. so thinking that they will overthrow their government and put in a US-Friendly / democratic leadership is pretty naive. That also did not work in Iraq.

 
Comment by scott

Israel, as mentioned will in all likelihood deal with Iran at the right time. Remember, they have been attacked repeatedly since their birth as a nation, and have stood up to those tests. They are a tiny nation, surrounded by countries/people that want them gone, period.
Do you think the Sept.’07 attack on the Syrian facility was a fluke? That crazy Iranian pres. knows that all the smack talk means nothing, when Israel decides to take preemptive measures- it’s only a matter of time.

 
Comment by Brian

There is a simpler and more elegant solution to this problem called Iran. The most immediate problem of Iran developing nuclear weapons will be dealt with by Israel. They have no choice but to pre-emptively strike Iranian nuclear capabilities in order to protect themselves. The U.N. , Saudia Arabia et al will saber rattle but praise Allah under their collective breaths. As for the long term goal of eliminating Iran as a threat the United States, the largest consumer of energy on the planet, can do quite a few things that would not only cripple Iran but also alleviate energy problems at home.
1) Open up drilling in ANWR and off the coasts.
2) Build more refineries.
3) Build as many Nuclear power plants as quickly as safety will allow.
4) Build clean coal plants (the U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal).
5) Give a mandate to Energy companies through incentive based tax exemptions to begin developing alternative energy sources that are practical and profitable.
6) Develop practical and affordable electric/hybrid and hydrogen vehicles, (once again, providing performance based tax exemtions to auto makers).
NOTE: The rest of the industrial nations should implement this as well.

Iranian leadership hangs by a thread and obviously their life blood is oil. Implementing this policy would greatly reduce the value of a barrel of oil. As, their stranglehold on a large portion of the worlds oil supply becomes less and less significant. And without the influx of oil money they lose power in the the region, they have less influence in Iraq and with growing hardship amongst people in their own country that already hate them they would be isolated and on the brink of collapse. You may not be able to eliminate Iranian leadership in total but yould basically imasculate them and make them harmless.

 
Comment by juan dumas

If you put in place an embargo,you better be prepare at an instant to take action at whatever unfolds,from your actions.Like war ,oil shortages.get the picture,does america have the gonads

 
Comment by Rod C. Venger

FWIW, I’m in favor of using conventional military means to knock out, or at least set back, Iran’s nuclear programs at our earliest convenience. Since none of the current crop of Presidential candidates have the sine to take on such a task, that leaves the task to President Bush. Since his name is already mud to the majority of our spineless citizens, I don’t think he’ll mind. -USAPatriot

 
Comment by SHA7RON

Seems like a great idea–maybe it should be passed along to someone who could–and more importantly-WOULD–do something about it.

 
Comment by vern barkel

It is apparent that most of you don’t realize that if we park about 10-15 nuclear subs, strategically, off the coast of Iran, out of harms way, they could easily fire 25 nuclear tipped Tomahawk missiles which travel just above ground and are indefensible, we could eliminate (ie., glass over) Urumiygh, Rasht, Qom, Qazvin, Kerman, Karaj, Hamadan, Baktaran, Ahvad, Shiraz, Tabritz, Esfahan, Mashrad, and finally, prioritizing 6 of them, Tehran. Just with one button. I would think Iran has thought of that. But, have they ? and have we ?

Best wishes, for a peacefull world, without Iranian nuclear power !

I’ve spent a lifetime in aerospace, I’m not smoking opium.

Vern

 
Comment by Don Esposito

My way of dealing with Iran is to destroy their desalinization plants then trade water for oil.

 
Comment by Steve

“Why? Because home-grown nuclear energy would undermine the effectiveness of future embargoes.”

Gee maybe the US could learn something from that tactic - like the value of energy self-sufficiency…

 
Comment by george

not a bad idea, but first we need to talk to russia, and china. Invite them to add imput. If they donot agree , or offer an alternative plan, then go ahead with ours. Let russia and china know we mean buisness, that will take care of that,no way they will stand up to us. If Mccain is our next president that will really help, this guy takes no shit from anyone.

 
Comment by Ted Urrea

I totally agree on this proposal however, the only hindrance, will be the dollar income to be lost if Iran’s oil is not refined. But, if a foreign group of governments can put up the lost income, this process will hurt Iran they never predicted and can turn the wheel of discontent among its populace.

 
Comment by Olgreydog7

I for one think this is absolutly naive. Like you said, it’s an act of war. Plus, you’ll never get countries to agree with it. Venezuela is not our friend and i think that we are in a trade deficit with China. So, we do this, China cuts off exports to us, Venezuela cuts off oil to us (guess who we get most of our oil from, it starts with a V and rhymes with nezuela), and Iran declares war on us. So, now we fight another war, with less supplies and oil to do it with. It may sound diplomatic on the surface, but scratch it just a little, and it results in military action. I have no doubt we’d beat Iran handly, however, we’d have another counter-insurgency fiasco on our hands, plus we’d have pissed off people that we get alot of our imports from.